FX Majors Update

From the FXWW Chatroom: {EU} EURUSD pushed through the post FOMC highs on London open this morning with the worse than expected confidence data the catalyst but despite buyers in our flows we found supply in the market and continue to expect the topside to be a bit of a slog here with selling interest lined up around 1.0950 and then the more significant topside resistance sits 1.0980-1.1000 (where we topped out a few times this month). Even further still is the 1.1050 region which would will be a big pivot as this is where we topped out in mind Dec post ECB/FED and it happens to be where the 200 DMA lies. Down below we based out nicely around 1.0860-40 and then the 55DMA ~1.0825 is also a pivot of late if we break it we see a more significant support into the 1.0800-1.0780 region (where we based on Friday). The options calendar for today sees ~1bn of 1.09s and then about 1.2bn of 1.0800-25s

{GB} After a respectable GDP print GBP is higher overall. But GBP$ continues to be bound by the broad 1.4350 – 1.4150 range that we have seen since the blow off top into 1.4350 late last week (held the past 2 sessions as well). From here we would expect there to be bids into 1.4250 judging from how we traded y’day in our session (with RM demand sen here and plenty of buyers in the market as well). If we do test the topside expect there to be offers then stops into 1.4400. EURGBP has rejected the 7640-80 region a few times in recent sessions and we would look for offers into that region on a restest today meanwhile our books are clean on the downside until the 21-DMA just below 0.7500. No significant expiries today

{SZ} EURCHF tried to take on further topside progress on a broadly stronger EUR earlier this morning but we ran into supply around 1.1080. The truth is that since we breached 1.1000 earlier in the week we are in uncharted territory technically as we are in a region we’ve not seen since the floor was taken out last Jan. So we would expect 1.1100 to attract supply but truth told we’re a bit uncertain from a technical perspective. USDCHF has edged lower on the lower EURUSD this morning but we expect there to be good demand into 1.01 (which was a level that was well fought for on the way up). Meanwhile on the topside we have seen offers forming into the 1.0180-1.0200 region. I suppose this makes sense as a break above here opens a big resistance level from Dec/last Spring. There are just under 300mln of 1.0200s expiring in CHF this morning

{JN} USDJPY has been quiet overnight (and all week actually) as we’ve failed to get through 119.00 in a meaningful way over the past 24hrs but despite a bout of risk off post FOMC we remain within striking distance. From here we expect more demand on dips below 118.40 with more significant supports into 118.00-117.80 and then 117.50-30 and if we do decide to re-test the downside we have further support levels into 116.80-40 and then the big one from last week lies 116.00-115.80. Up above we’ve stalled above 119.00 for now but if we break we think this opens the 120 handle quickly. EURJPY broke higher this morning on the higher EUR taking out the 129.50 region that it couldnt get through in our session y’day post FOMC. So now we’re looking at a re-test through 130.00 which should be supportive of both EURUSD and $JPY if it were to materialize Meanwhile on the downside most significant supports have held so far and we would expect dips into 128.00-127.50 to hold with key support on the 126 handle looming (this is a region we haven’t really probed in earnest since early 2015). In terms of expiries the big hot zone today is 118.00-50 with about 2bn total expiring then there are abo

{AU} AUDUSD shorts continue to get scrubbed but we’ve not managed to get through the 7080-7100 region just yet. We do however look for support to hold into 7050 and have bids building 6980-7000 and look for further support 6920. AUDJPY managed to break above 84.00 but it is consolidating now and we think that it will take a lot to see 84.50-85.00 again in this pair – which has been destroyed so far this year. But whether we try to re-test lower here or press the shorts on the topside will have AUDUSD implications so keep an eye on this pair. The DTCC data sees about 500mln of 7000s today and tomorrow there are also about 500mln of 70s and 500mln of 7100-25s

{CA} USDCAD continues to press lower overall but the pace of the move has slowed considerably in the 1.4000-1.4100 region and we think that is because the market is trying to build a base here as we have had this level circled as the longer term support for a while. So from here we expect demand in this broad region with supply likely to emerge on bounces into 1.4300 initially as we see a very obvious resistance into 1.4350-1.4400 (where we held on the downside last week). Saying all of that energy prices will continue to dictate CAD moves as this CCY should move in lock step with WTI. The DTCC sees a light expiry calendar this AM but there are about 750mln of 1.4150s

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