FX radar: Tuesday 10th update

The US$ is still in limbo for now given it has failed to print either a higher High or a lower High and so the wait continues. I’d mentioned in my w/e update that the FX Indices were not aligned and this means that trades are best sourced off the 30 min charts during the European and or US session and this has proven to be a rather valid observation, yet again. There is AUD Retail Sales and CNY CPI and PPI out today so watch the AUD pairs during the Asian session for any reaction.

NB: I am working on developing my algorithm so as to catch the 30 min chart moves that trigger during the European and US session. These are moves that I miss here given my time zone. 

USDX daily: The US$ is struggling to gain traction at the moment. Watch for any new higher High to support bullish continuation or for a lower High or lower Low to support a reversal. For now though, it’s just chopping sideways and forming up within a daily chart triangle. Maybe a momentum-based trend line breakout will offer a better clue here about the next directional move:

GBP/JPY: Over the w/e I posted a chart suggesting to watch for any momentum-based triangle breakout and this came through during my night. A straight out triangle break trade could have yielded 160 pips but I note there was also a new TC SHORT off the 30 min charts that would be up now 200 pips.

GBP/JPY 4hr chart from before the breakout:

After the breakout:

There was a TC signal to SHORT here off the 30 min cahrt in the early European session:

GBP/USD: as with the GBP/JPY I had suggested watching for any triangle breakout on the Cable. The chart from my w/e post is here:

The breakout triggered yesterday and gave 120 pips. Note the classic trend line breakout, pullback and then continuation:

AUD/USD 4hr: The flag I noted in my w/e post proved to be a useful gauge.

Aussie 4hr as at the w/e:

This is the Aussie 4hr chart today. A move of just 50 pips but still worth catching if you could. Price action has currently paused under the 61.8% fib of this recent swing low move and also just under the 0.74 psych level. Watch today with AUD Retail Sales and CNY CPI and PPI as strong prints could provide the fuel to lift this pair through 0.74 and, if so, you’d have to expect 0.75 might be the next target:

AUD/JPY: this triangle, noted over the w/e, also gave a 50 pip move:

A/J 4hr chart from my w/e post:

The A/J 4hr today: this move only gave 50 pips and has now pulled back. Watch with today’s AUD Retail Sales and CNY CPI and PPI as strong prints could provide the fuel for continuation with this pair:

Gold 4hr: the Bull Flag I had noted over the w/e seems to have evolved:

This is how the Gold 4hr chart appeared in my w/e post:

This is today’s chart showing the momentum based breakout:

NZD/USD 4hr: it seems the Kiwi isn’t going to give up the 0.70 level that easily!

USD/TRY 30 min: another decent TC signal off the 30 min charts:

EUR/USD 4hr: there has been no momentum here just yet and so the triangle trend lines have been adjusted:

EUR/JPY 4hr: no Flag breakout here yet:

USD/JPY: still chopping sideways for now. Not much momentum on the daily time frame:

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