FX Update: Monday 29th Sept by Mary McNamara

USDX: we might be starting to see the first chink in the armour for the USD index. The index is under a major trend line and this may slow, or even halt, this 3 month USD rally.

USDX 4hr:


TC Signal:

Loonie: this signal is still open BUT, if the USD index stalls, I’m expecting a pull back here to test either the broken trend line and, possibly, the 1.10 level. 



E/U: this hasn’t done too much today:


E/J: no new TC signal yet BUT a flag breakout might be underway. These technical breakouts have been pretty reliable trades of late:


A/U: seems to be trying to put in a bounce off a recent S/R level: the ‘Head’ from my now abandoned H&S pattern! There is Chinese high impact data tomorrow with HSBS Final Manufacturing PMI that may impact here:

A/U 4hr:


A/U weekly:


A/J: still below the 96 level. A hold below this level would have to be seen as bearish. Conversely, any new break and close back above this level, especially to see out September, would be rather bullish:


Cable: this might get some support here. The 61.8% fib of the latest bull run and the weekly 200 EMA are near current price. Add any new USD weakness to this and we could see this pair move higher. There is GBP ‘Current Account’ high impact data tomorrow night:


Kiwi: this has been the pair in focus today. I had mentioned in my w/e analysis that the bearish targets to watch include the 0.65 and 0.77 cents level. These two levels have featured heavily today: the 65 as the preferred level targeted by the NZ Prime Minister and the 77 as the level currently offering some support.

I wrote a separate article today mentioning thoughts about how to best trade this pair from here. The article can be found through this link. The 0.77 level remains the current focus.

Traders need to be aware that there is NZD high impact data tomorrow with ANZ Business Confidence:


U/J 4hr: still going for now:


GBP/JPY: watch for any flag breakout here….. with momentum:


AUD/NZD: this one has got right away. Note the breakout from the bullish descending wedge and how accurate this technical pattern has been. A hold above the 1.12 would be bullish for the longer term. There is NZD data tomorrow as well Chinese Final Manufacturing PMI that may impact here:


GBP/CHF: this is still hovering under the 1.55 strong S/R level:


CAD/JPY: note how this pair has pulled back to the 98 S/R level:

C/J 4hr:


C/J 4hr: these are now looking more like the S/R levels to watch. No momentum yet but keep an eye on that too, as well as the trend lines:


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