Greece referendum preview

WHAT IS THE VOTE ABOUT?

Greek people are hereby asked to decide whether they accept a draft agreement document submitted by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, at the Eurogroup meeting held on June 25 and which consists of two documents.

WHEN WILL WE GET THE RESULTS?

Polling stations will be open from 07:00 to 19:00 local time (UTC +02:00)
Results might be available before midnight

WILL THERE BE EXIT POLLS?

Not confirmed yet, but if they will be exit polls, they are likely to be published right after the stations close at 19:00

WHAT ARE THE OPINION POLLS SHOWING?

They are quite mixed; Bloomberg’s poll shows 43 % intend to vote NO and 42.5 % YES with 14.5 % undecided
Most bank analysts expect a YES vote

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF GREECE VOTES “YES”?
Tsipras is likely to resign
A new government could be formed, likely under a technocratic leadership
A YES vote wouldn’t improve things in the short-term; negotiations with creditors will still be tough, but it would be the most market-friendly outcome

WHAT IF GREECE VOTES NO?
Tsipras announced that a NO vote is not a vote to exit the Euro, but one to get a better deal with creditors
Most analysts have gloomy forecasts for Greece in this case: Greek bank holiday extended, ECB not increasing ELA, Greece running out of money, increased political pressure and eventually an exit from the Euro

There is a good chance that we’ll see another larger weekend gap in the EUR pairs at the Sunday open, so if you have any EUR positions running, make sure you have that in mind.

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