Indices/Commodities Outlook

 

INDICES/COMMODITIES
S&P Futures 2128 No change in view.  The S+P had another choppy but directionless session, below the previous day’s all time high at 2133 level (2131/2115), leaving the outlook unchanged. Beyond 2133 would open up the way for a run towards the 2150/55 target, where the trend line joining the previous highs will provide some resistance. Further out, the longer term upside target would appear to be the 161.8% projection of 666 (Mar ’09) to 1372 (May ’11) from 1073 (Oct ’11) at 2206. If the index fails at current levels then we are in for further choppy trade and a move back towards/below 2100. At this stage this looks less likely and buying dips towards 2110 again seems to be the plan, but keep stops tight below 2100. Watch out for Janet Yellen later in the day, ahead of Monday’s US holiday meaning that liquidity will be thin.
DJI 18264 Ditto the S+P; the DJI also had a choppy sideways session (18195/18290) below yesterday’s 18330 all time high, leaving the outlook unchanged.  The positive look of the daily chart appears to suggest an eventual move towards 183500/400 and as we said before, the longer term target seems to be the 161.8% projection of 6458 (Mar ’09) to 12871 (May ’11) from 12225 (Oct ’11) at 20495. While the dailies do remain positive, it could be that they are making an early attempt to roll over, so a failure at current levels would see the choppy conditions continue, possibly for another retreat towards 18000. I think this is less likely and that another run to 18300 (and beyond) should not surprise, but it may be slow going. Watch out for JY, speaking later today.
ASX SPI 5684 The shorter term indicators proved to be correct yesterday, with the SPI heading higher to reach the 5685 resistance, and with the 4 hour charts now suggesting that a test of 5700 and possibly higher, towards 5715 (100 DMA) and possibly to 5761 (15 May high), should not be ruled out. Overall though, the choppy trade looks set to continue over the next few days, where downside support would be found at the 100/200 HMA at 5660, and below here, at around 5640 and at the session low of 5614.  Below this looks to be on hold, but below 5600  could see a re-test of 5578, below which could potentially revisit the trend low at 5558, which should be good support, this being where the 200 DMA currently sits.
GOLD 1206 Gold is once again unchanged today after a sideways session (1202/13) and continues to sit just above the 1200 pivot. As with yesterday, the charts are mixed, so I would not be leaning too heavily in either direction but would tend to mildly favour the downside by the look of the 4 hour charts, where, below 1200 would see bids in the previous 1185/95 congestion area. The topside again looks limited today by the 100/200 DMAs which appear to be converging over the next few days at around 1215 and should offer decent resistance. If wrong, a topside break would head towards the recent high at 1232.
SILVER 17.15 Silver also had a sideways session, currently unchanged from yesterday after a tight 17.01/25 range. The 200 DMA and the 200 HMA, at 17.00/10, will provide the initial supports, but a break of which would see a run towards 16.75 and possibly to 16.45. The topside looks to be a sell on rallies situation, where 17.40/50 will act as resistance, with a SL placed above the trend high, at around 17.80.
OIL(WTI) 60.64 WTI held the base of the 58-61 range that we have been favouring over the last week or two and today saw a squeeze back to the top end, after a 58.67/60.91 range. More of the same could be in store, although a break of the topside could see a run towards 61.75 and possibly towards 62.55 albeit that this looks unlikely in the short term. Back to the downside, 60.00 will provide support, but a break of which would head back towards the 58.67 session low. Although unlikely to be seen today, a downside break of 58.00 would find nearby support at 57.85 below which could see a deeper fall towards 56.60 and maybe to 56.00, and below which, there is little to stop it heading to 55.70 and then to 54.70 (38.2% of 42.02/62.55).

 

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