Indices/Commodities Outlook by FX Charts

 

INDICES/COMMODITIES
S&P Futures 2107 The S+P had a wild ride on Friday, initially heading sharply lower on the back of concerns over where Greece is heading, reaching the support at 2080 before reversing as the stories of a breakthrough in the EU/Greece negotiations began to emerge, finally taking out 2100 and heading to a high of 2108. As long as the deal stays in place, then I guess the index will grind gradually higher. The danger is that any negative headline will bring a sharp reversal. The other key event this week will be Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress. Assuming that she toes a steady line, then we should probably expect the index to grind slowly towards 2120, while the support is seen and at 2000 and then at 2080.
DJI 18108 The DJI equally had an equally big session on Friday, initially heading sharply lower to meet the support at 17850, before reversing big time, taking out 18000 in spectacular fashion, followed closely by advancing to the previous 18048 all time high, which got taken out with ease as the index advanced to its new peak at 18119. If the Greece deal looks solid, then further gains will arrive and these could be stoked along on Wednesday if Janet Yellen shows any sign of hesitation in raising US rates in the coming months. 18000 now looks likely to be support, while 18150 and then 18200 look to be in sight.
ASX SPI 5862 The SPI continues its consolidation within the wide 5800/5900 range and appears set to do so for the next couple of sessions, with the chance that this will remain the case until Janet Yellen’s testimony to the US Congress on Wednesday, which may kick start all the global indices, depending on the gist of what she says. In the meantime I would be surprised to see the SPI above 5900, although if wrong, the index could head to last week’s spike high at 5913, above which there is little resistance to be seen ahead of the Fibo resistance of the major move down from 6880 (Dec 2007 high) to 3102 (March 2009 low) at 5975. If the SPI does turn lower, then we could see another test of the rising trend support, now seen at 5825, and possibly 5800, but which should probably be viewed as a buying opportunity.
GOLD 1201 Most of the action lay elsewhere on Friday as Gold stuck to its similar script, supported by bids in the 1197/1200 region, while offers at 1215 proved too much to overcome on the topside. Once again, we could be in for a repeat of this today, although given the bearish look of the dailies, I would be looking for a level to sell into the strength, hoping for an eventual break of the 1190/1200 support searching for a run towards 1185 and then possibly to Fibo support at around 1174 (76.4% of 1131/1307). On the topside, 1215/1220 (200 HMA) will continue to act as resistance, above which would see another run to the equally stubborn 1230 level. Sell rallies with a SL above 1255 (1250: 100 DMA) still seems to be the plan.
SILVER 16.18 Silver tried the topside in reaching 16.58 on Friday before giving up and reversing to finish the week near to Friday’s lows finishing at 16.22. We could be in for the same again today, but, as with Gold, given the bearish outlook of the dailies, any strength appears to be a sell opportunity, looking for a run below  16.20,  towards 16.00 (15.97: 14.41/ 17.99) and possibly to the triple bottom at around 15.52.
OIL(WTI) 50.75 WTI fell on Friday, due in part to the cold weather that has taken a lot of traffic off road, although it still managed to hold on above 50.00 heading into the weekend.  More choppy trade looks to be in store and so I prefer to remain sidelined. 50.00 will again provide some support ahead of the 49.12 low. I don’t really see it down here again today, but if wrong, then we could get another run towards 48.00 and the 5 Feb low at 47.35. On the topside, above 52.10 would head towards 52.70 and possibly on to 53.00. Above this, the points to watch are at Wednesday’s 53.38 high, where the daily cloud base is proving a major hindrance and then at last Monday’s 53.95 high. Beyond that sits the double top that has formed at 54.15 and then 55.08 (2 Jan high).

 

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