Many FX pairs, Silver, Gold and the two FX indices remain range-bound ahead of tonight’s FOMC and tomorrow’s Eurogroup meetings. The markets are desperately looking for clues about the US$ and about which way it will move from here; up or down? One big positive to flow out of this choppiness though is that momentum is low on many pairs, below threshold levels, and this will make any new trend moves much easier to identify. All thanks to the ADX. One does have to look for the positives out of all of this! The GBP has been a bit of an outlier here though and this has helped the two current GBP-based TC signals.
ADX: this indicator may help to offer clues about the next directional move for many of the currency pairs. This is especially the case when the ADX and DMIs are below 20, as is the case now with many of the FX pairs.
- Bullish breakout move: Bullish movement will see the ADX (black) rise above the 20 level along with the +DMI (green) rising above 20.
- Bearish breakout move: Bearish moves will see the ADX rise above 20 along with the -DMI (red) also rising above 20.
USDX daily: still triangle bound and under the 95.50 level. Will FOMC news trigger a breakout?
EURX daily: range-bound ahead of FOMC and tomorrow’s Eurogroup meetings:
S&P500 daily: I had stressed to watch for a possible bounce up off the Cloud and that is exactly what we got! Watch trend lines for any Flag breakout:
Silver 4hr: not leaving the safety of the $16 level. Note the ADX, +DMI and -DMI are all below 20. Watch for any new move with increased momentum:
Gold daily: this isn’t straying too far from the safety of $1,180 support. Watch for any new break away move combined with an uptick with momentum:
TC Signals: the GBP/USD has moved on a bit higher but the GBP/JPY is roughly the same. There is GBP Employment data and a BoE Gov Carney speech before FOMC to watch out for tonight:
GBP/USD: this TC signal is now up 230 pips. This has continued to edge upwards despite little momentum. The GBP has been the quiet achiever this week given the EUR and USD have been caught up whilst waiting for their key news events:
GBP/JPY: still at around 160 pips:
Other FX: FOMC is the main event news item tonight but there is also GBP Employment data and a BoE Gov Carney speech to monitor:
E/U 4hr: chopping sideways but note the ADX, +DMI and -DMI are all below 20 here too. Watch for any new price move along with increased momentum:
E/J 4hr: no increase in momentum so I have adjusted the trend lines again. Watch for any breakout move with momentum:
A/U 4hr: chopping sideways like the E/U and note the ADX, +DMI and -DMI are all below 20 here too. Watch for any new move along with increased momentum:
A/J daily: ditto here:
Kiwi 4hr: isn’t straying too far from the weekly 200 EMA (green line).
U/J 4hr: chopping sideways like the E/U and A/U and note the ADX, +DMI and -DMI are all below 20 here too. Watch for any new breakout triangle move along with increased momentum:
EUR/NZD 4hr: chopping sideways but note the ADX, +DMI and -DMI are all below 20 here too. Watch for any new move along with increased momentum:
GBP/AUD 4hr: this is trying to trigger a new TC signal but I’m wary ahead of tonight”s loaded trading calendar
GBP/NZD: ditto here: