One down, one to go

FOMC is out of the way and we now just have to get through Thursday’s Eurogroup meetings. The Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, was more dovish than many had expected and this has punished the US$. The EURX isn’t making too much of a capitulation-style move higher just yet however as Grexit fear still weights heavily. This outcome has enable my two current TC signals to soar though and both have reached up to 400 pips for a combined 800 pip total.

 USDX daily: A more dovish than expected FOMC has seen the US$ break below recent trend line support. The 92.50 is the key level to watch in any continuation move:


EURX daily: fairly mute on the day given FOMC. Obviously waiting for Greece-related news.


S&P500: still above the Cloud and closed higher on the day. Stocks were buoyed by news of a gradual pace of US interest rate hike…. when it eventually comes that is:


Silver 4hr: back above $16 support given the US$ weakness:


Gold daily: holding above $1,180 support but it’s not getting too excited just yet:


TC Signals: both up 400 pips for a combined 800 pips. There is one new signal now too but I urge caution:

Cable 4hr: has given over 400 pips. Note the ‘Double Top’ appearance though. The weekly chart may hep identify possible targets:


Cable weekly: this chart show the resistance levels in the way for this pair. There is the 50% fib of the recent swing low move near 1.59, then the psychological 1.60 and this is followed by the 61.8% fib near 1.62. I’d expect to see price react at these level and many will have their ‘take profits’ up near one or other of these levels:


GBP/JPY 4hr: I’m looking at the monthly chart for a possible target here:


GBP/JPY monthly: the 61.8% fib of the major monthly swing low move sits near the psychological 200 level and would have to be an obvious target for this move:


E/J 4hr: this has triggered a new TC signal but I caution: I got caught on a signal here last week that failed. I would definitely be waiting until AFTER the Eurogroup meetings. Also, it might be better to see a close and hold above the 140 level OR, even safer than that, above the ‘Triple Top’ region that sits at the key 61.8% fib level near 141:


EUR/JPY monthly: any bullish breakout above the 61.8% fib and ‘Triple Top’ region would bring the 143 level into focus and, after that, my potential bullish ‘inverse H&S’ move:


Other FX: there is a lot of data apart from the Eurogroup meeting news today. NZD GDP, SNB rate news, GBP Retail Sales, EUR Targeted LTRO, US CPI, Unemployment Claims & Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

E/U 4hr: trying to break above a recent triangle but no new TC signal yet. Not surprising given the current Grexit fear:


E/U weekly: it might be better to wait and see any break from the weekly triangle/wedge trend lines:


A/U 4hr: recovering on the US$ weakness:


A/J daily: still consolidating:


Kiwi 4hr: also enjoying the US$ weakness. Watch for today’s GDP news:


U/J 4hr: this didn’t like the FOMC report:


GBP/NZD monthly: this has not really looked back since breaking the 2.10 level but note the resistance that lies ahead near the 2.30 level, courtesy of a monthly bear trend line:


GBP/NZD monthly Cloud: now note where the top of the monthly comes in!  Rather near the 2.30 level too. Thus, expect price action to possibly react around this level. A break and hold above this would be very bullish and suggest a significant polarity shift for this pair. This ties in with other GBP based charts too.


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