Is the BOJ toothless? (August 22)

Japanese exports continue to drop for the 10th consecutive month and the BOJ is not able to reverse it. USA is the first export partner with 20% China being the 2nd with 18%. The not so good relations between Japan and China concerning the South China See are certainly affecting the economies of both countries. If interested you can read moreHERE. The latest QE announcement did not help the currency that is currently trading around the 100 level (Usd/Jpy). An attempt to move lower on Tuesday and test 99,50 was immediately “corrected” by an up move of 170 pips but soon after the pressure on the pair was back again. I believe the BOJ alone is not able to reverse the situation and will need a helping hand from the government and eventually from other central banks but they cannot continue with this pace.
Overall it has been a quiet week and this was more than expected. This is also the reason my video is shorter than usual. I did not have to say much. The pairs are remaining inside predefined ranges and the movers of the week were the Eur/Aud and Gbp/Aud with exactly 260 pips each. The moving currency was the Australian dollar that lost 149 pips (according to my statistic tool).
From the pairs that I monitor the Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd and Eur/Aud approached the upper boundaries of their trading channels and should be considered for shorts. I already have shorts on those pairs (prematurely opened) so I might not open new ones. The Gbp/Aud (my favorite) broke above resistance but Friday’s candle is very promising for continuing South. I will avoid once again the Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy for the same reasons I am avoiding them the previous weeks (a potential intervention of the BOJ), the Usd/Jpy should be closely watched, because it looks like violently reacting to the 99+ level, offering good opportunities for longs. The Usd/Cad made it’s move, bounced and is now in the middle of nowhere. Potential test of upper or lower border could trigger a short or long trade.
No important news apart from Mr Kuroda (Gov of the BOJ) holding a speech on Tuesday and Mrs Yelen also holding a speech during the Kansas city economic symposium (25th to the 27th of August).

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