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Morgan Stanley: Selling GBP/USD with a 1.40 target

GBP has started the year on a weak footing – a trend we expect to continue throughout 2015. Political uncertainty, a softening growth outlook and declining inflation are likely to be the drivers of GBP underperformance. Investment inflows to the UK, an important supportive factor for GBP over the past two years, are already showing […]

AUD/JPY: trade idea

The USDX seems to be stalling a bit ahead of all the scheduled US sensitive data for this week and this may set up for better trading opportunities in some of the cross pairs. One pair coming back into focus for me now is the A/J. The A/J has essentially chopped sideways for the last couple of […]

USDJPY: Safe haven demand helps Yen as US$ heads lower on the back of lower equities/oil price

USD/JPY: 119.58 The dollar came under pressure, on the back of the lower oil/energy prices, and eventually took out the 100/200 HMA supports at around 120.00 and then broke below the daily Tenkan at 119.80 as the Yen found some safe haven demand, with the dollar falling quickly to a low of 119.37.Further short term […]

EURUSD: Euro under pressure. Traders nervous ahead of the Jan 25th Greek election.

  EUR/USD: 1.1943 Most of the action took place when the retail platforms opened yesterday morning, with the Euro collapsing, in taking out 1.2000 support, triggering stops and falling quickly to a low of 1.1850 before a quick bounce back to 1.1975. Increasing rumours of a Greek exit from the EU (and possible debt default) […]

Oil, Copper fall heavily; likely to influence AUD/JPY in particular

Crude oil prices dipped below $50/bbl for the first time in over 5 years and copper prices also fell heavily during NY trade. This sentiment is likely to carry over into the Asian market and pairs like AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY might be vulnerable to some increasing downward pressure. The post Oil, Copper fall heavily; likely […]

AUDUSD: Aud sitting just above critical support. Break sees 0.8000 – and potentially much lower by FX Charts

AUD/USD: 0.8088 Having seen a holiday short-squeeze up to 0.8215 (31 Dec), the Aud has since given up all those gains and finally broke below 0.8100 on Friday, to close the week at 0.8090, just above the 0.8077 session low and also above the critical support at the May 2010 lows at 0.8066.A break of […]

EUR flows: Speculators short but big players still selling by Sean Lee

Just catching up on interbank research after a 2 week break and the following factors are being consistently reported: Prime Brokers are reporting heavy speculative short positions amongst professional players, especially through the options market; Overall short positioning in the spot market is at significant levels; Net Fixed Income flows have been very EUR-negative and […]

EZ CPI, Fed minutes and NFP on this week’s calendar

From Nomura: 1. Eurozone CPI and unemployment (Wednesday 10:00am): Nomura expects headline CPI to drop to -0.2% y-o-y and core CPI to drop to 0.6% y-o-y, both below consensus. 2. Fed minutes from its December meeting (Wednesday 7:00pm) 3. BoE meeting (Thursday 12:00pm): Nomura expects no change in policy. 4. US NFP (Friday 1:30pm): Nomura […]

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