Post NFP: possible pullback targets by Mary McNamara

Stocks sold off after Friday’s NFP and that selling has carried over into today’s Asian session. I had previously mentioned that I am looking for a pullback on the NASDAQ; back to at least test the 4,800 level. That is still the case but, if that level is broken, I will then look for clues on the larger S&P500 index and for this to pullback and test its daily and/or monthly support trend lines. Further falls beyond that would have me looking for a test of the previous triangle breakout level of 1,600. With pullbacks in mind, I’m watching the following stocks, indices and ETFs for any pullback and test of either key Fib or support levels.

 NASDAQ weekly: if you Fib the most recent move on the NASDAQ then the 4,800 level lies just above the 61.8% Fib which is a popular pullback target.

NASDAQfibsmall

NASDAQ weekly: however, this larger swing move could also be argued as an appropriate range. If so, the 61.8% Fib would be closer to the daily support trend line and that sits within reason too:

NASDAQfibBig

QQQ: NASDAQ ETF: in the same way here a 61.8% Fib pullback would bring this ETF back down to near the $104-103 level:

QQQdaily

XAO: The Aussie All Ordinaries: this index made a recent triangle breakout and the trend is bullish here BUT trends don’t run in purely straight lines forever. XAO traders should look out for any pullback to the 5,520 level as this is near the 61.8% Fib of the last major swing high move:

XAOdaily

XJO: Aussie ASX-200: similarly here, watch for any 61.8% Fib pullback of the last major swing high move to the 5,550 region:

XJO

PEP: Pepsi made a bullish breakout above $87 back in 2014 and any 61.8% pullback would bring price action back down near this key level:

PEPweekly

AMZN: Amazon looks to have started a Bull Flag but any pullback to the S/R level of $340 would tie in to a 50 ~ 61.8% Fib range:

AMZNweekly

AAPL: this is on the way in a Cup ‘n’ Handle pattern with a target of $140 but a bit of pullback could evolve here too. The 61.8% fib of the recent bull move is back down near $115 so look for any test of this region.

AAPL

TLT: Bonds ETF: this has pulled back to the 38.2% Fib but the 50% Fib is near the the previous ‘Handle’ pattern and may be more of a target that the 61.8% Fib:

TLTweekly

PCLN: I’ve got this in a triangle on the weekly chart but it has bounced back down off the upper trend line. The 61.8% Fib is down near the $1,100 level and might be target if consolidation continues:

PCLN

NKE: this may not get much of a pullback but, if it does, then the breakout $80 level is near the 61.8% Fib of the recent swing high move:

NKEweekly

KRFT: Kraft broke above $59 last year but a 61.8% Fib pullback of the last big swing high move would bring price back down to test this breakout region. Confluence!

KRFT

COH: this has also rejected an upper triangle trend line and a 61.8% pullback would tie in with the daily 200 EMA near $39:

COH

MU: this has been on a huge rally for the last two years and made a bullish break above $20. This value lies between the 50% and 61.8% Fib and so would be an obvious pullback target:

MUweekly

YHOO: a pullback to $40 would tie in a major S/R level and with the 61.8% Fib of the last major swing high move:

YHOOweekly

GM: this has made a trend line breakout but any pullback might target the $35 level which is midway between the 50% and 61.8% Fib:

GMdaily

LOW: this rallied throughout much of 2014 after breaking up through $45. Any pullback may target this $45 level but, if it doesn’t get back down that far, then the $60 /$55 levels may be  targets as they’re the 50% and 61.8% Fib respectively:

LOWweekly

WFC: this is a monthly chart but this stock has been in an uptrend for the last 4 years. A pullback may be a bit ambitious but the $40 breakout region is not too far from the 50% Fib:

WFCmonthly

XOM: this has broken down through a weekly support trend line and so the $75 level, near the 61.8% Fib, could be a likely target for any bearish follow through:

XOMweekly

 

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