TC signal update ahead of FOMC

The US$ slipped a bit yesterday following some weaker than expected US data but the bigger-trend picture for the US$ will be best gauged after tonight’s FOMC.

NB: I leave tonight for a 4 week holiday and so blog updates will be brief and few during this period. I will be in transit for over a day.

USDX daily: the cycle of lower Highs & Lows was broken at the end of last week but FOMC might dictate whether this trend resumes or definitely reverses.


Gold daily:I’m watching with FOMC to see whether a Bull Flag or H&S evolves here:


Oil weekly: FOMC might also help price to make or break the $45 barrier:


TC Signals: three Yen based signals triggered at the end of last week following Friday’s BoJ activity and, as such, I was wary of them. Two are in profit but the U/J failed. There is another new Yen signal on the A/J but this is ahead of today’s AUD CPI:

E/J 4hr: this has stalled at the major 126 S/R level and this is the region to watch for any make or break with FOMC-inspired activity:


U/J 4hr: this has drifted back to the safety of the 111 level ahead of FOMC and is the region to watch for make or break. I’ll be noting this as a maximum loss of 100 pips:


G/J 4hr: this has moved on for 270 pips:


A/J: a new TC LONG signal has just triggered here BUT there is AUD CPI data and FOMC to impact here today. As well, price is butting up against the daily 200 EMA and a weekly chart bear trend line but watch for any make or break from this major S/R region:

A/J 4hr: a new TC LONG signal:


A/J daily: price is butting up against a weekly bear trend line and the daily 200 EMA:


A/J weekly: note the bear TL:


A/J monthly: any bullish break above the weekly bear TL will have me focused on the next bear trend line:


Other Forex:

E/U 4hr: drifting sideways ahead of FOMC:


A/U 4hr: edging higher ahead of today’s AUD CPI and FOMC:


GBP/USD daily: this cleared the recent Double Top but has stalled at major 1.46 S/R ahead of today’s GBP GDP and US FOMC. Note how the inverse H&S seems to have come back to life! Watch the 1.46 for any make or break:


Kiwi 4hr: a bit lost ahead of today’s FOMC and tomorrow’s RBNZ rate statement. Keep an eye on the 0.70 level:


USD/CAD 4hr: the 50% fib keeps supporting here but watch for any make or break from here with FOMC:


EUR/NZD 4hr: drifting ahead of FOMC and RBNZ:


GBP/NZD 4hr: the wedge breakout, warned about in earlier blogs, has given 450 pips. Note how price is above the key 2.10 level again:


GBP/AUD 4hr: and this wedge breakout, also warned about here, has given 200 pips. Whilst this wedge breakout didn’t come with a new TC 4hr signal it did come with a new break above the 4hr Cloud:


EUR/AUD 4hr: drifting above trend line support here:


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