THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU:
INTRODUCTION:
To say that the first week back trading after the holidays was “interesting” would be the biggest understatement ever and worthy of a paragraph or two in the “Guinness Book of Records”.
I have never witnessed a press conference like “THE DONALDS”, (I can’t even keep a straight face when I write President Elect) ever in my 60 years on this planet. To say that it was a circus is an insult to Chipperfields, Barnum’s and Billy Smarts, however, it was so entertaining I let trades fly way in the aftermath as I wanted to see how CNN (The fake news TV network) would react.
Let me just say, I think that CNN is condescending to its viewers, trashy, badly programmed with smug presenters who think they know everything about everyone and every subject in the world. Frankly it is NOT a news channel, it lost that classification months ago when it gave up news in favour of the nightly 8 around the table lets shout at and across each other broadcast. These people were alleged well informed guests and mostly “paid contributors” brought on to say what the station wanted. At times, it was a toss-up, between the comedy channel and CNN, they both made me laugh as much as each other.
I firmly believe the career politicians on the hill who are blockages to reform, will be called out the same way that CNN was last Wednesday. TRUMP could not give a shit. He has his agenda. He will work it and like Mr. Magoo he will boldly walk forward never looking back to see the chaos and disorder left behind him. Get used to it. This is the way that things are going to be. Expect the unexpected. CNN look like they are screwed moving forwards as far as THE DONALD is concerned and in a very rushed, one could say childish response they released a press statement denying all charges.
In the run up to the election the “experts” on CNN had a real go at TRUMP, for what may be good reason, but the “He’s just not doing it the right way” approach and consistent message was way off point. They missed the feelings of the voters just like the Democrats and were completely perplexed by the election result.
All this stuff in the US about the popular vote is sour grapes and frankly is energy that could be put to better use. In an election that is NOT based upon proportional representation, it happens lots of times that the winner may not have the popular vote as well. Suck it up and move on. The only solution is electoral reform, and if you go down the route of proportional representation, you end up with coalitions that are usually weak and bugger all that was proposed and mandated never gets done.
So…. welcome 2017… not just a new year but a new way.
I had EUR/USD and USD/CHF long term trades open during the press conference. They are long, long-term trades. They were up and down, up and down like a hooker’s knickers. Small positions based on POSITION STYLE trades off the monthly ATR so they do not worry me, but the volatility was huge…”bigly” (as Trump would say).
Here is an easy prediction for the next 4 years… more of the same!!
Moving on…
I did my first PERISCOPE BROADCAST last Monday, despite my microphone not working. This Monday the 16th at 5:30PM EST is PERISCOPE #2 and I am borrowing my wife’s headset, therefore the “hearing me” issues should be eradicated. If you want to hear me log into PERISCOPE, my twitter address is @pipaccumulator.
THE FX MARKET PLACE – LOOKING FORWARD:
NOTE: This year, 2017, I am not going to look backwards in this section only forwards. News items / points of interest from the prior week will be covered in the introduction.
ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:
MY THOUGHTS ON THE WEEK AHEAD:
A lot more economic data being released this coming week.
The high spot in the FX world, will of course be the ECB Press Conference, I doubt even another attacker on Draghi could create the same effect as the “TRUMP” press conference last week. It should be a far more businesslike sedate affair with the high noteworthy comments based around either a blue tie or red tie being worn!!
The BOC press conference in Canada will be very similar to that of the RBNZ… a few of the chaps sitting around drinking coffee and biscuits hanging on every breath that Stephen Poloz the BOC Governor takes. Apart from Vancouver, high-end house prices are rampant in Canada. Measures taken in Vancouver to stop outside investors bumping up prices have worked, but all that has happened is that those investors have moved east. There is a huge bubble about to burst in the housing market and this drive a wedge like a hot knife through butter, possibly triggering recession talks.
I do not expect a rate cut this week, in fact, I expect Poloz to keep a neutral position like the RBNZ and to some extent the RBA. However, beneath his comments the Canadian economy has big risks in play.
I have given up on the BOC being anything other than ultra Conservative; their reaction is comparable to that of a dinosaur.
UK and Australian jobs are also on the agenda and they are usually market movers. Do not forget the Dairy auction prices, I wish I could. The NZD is without doubt the most over-valued pain in the arse currency to trade…. I always feel a little better after I have written that…. that damn flightless bird!! Those of you who are PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers will know where I am coming from.
USD MAJORS – “IMMEDIATE” SUPPORT & RESISTANCE with TREND:
My trade charts for the USD majors are below. My thoughts, views and commentary is written on the charts.
You will find my charts, hopefully easy to follow. I only use Fibonacci levels, trend lines, confluence points and sometimes chart patterns to identify my high probability trades. If you have any difficulty understanding the points that I am trying to make, please do not hesitate to contact me.
EUR/USD:
GBP/USD:
AUD/USD:
NZD/USD:
USD/CAD:
USD/CHF:
USD/JPY:
SCOTT’S SOAPBOX:
If you recall, in my final “DRIVE THRU” of 2016, I provided a list of TRADING PREDICTIONS for 2017. I basically named several geopolitical events that I feel will weigh on the markets this year. Therefore, for the first few weeks of 2017, I want to look at these events in a little more detail.
As you will be aware, so much has been said already on the subjects that I have highlighted, I can only add points and views that are my own, based upon how I see things and how I am going to view trading around these events.
THE EUROZONE “RISKS”
I am a simple guy; originally from Liverpool, England. I like my football and I love Cricket and Formula 1 racing. I am neat and tidy about the house, everything has its place. My computers are orderly; everything is in folders. I have spreadsheets everywhere and spreadsheets for everything. I consider myself reasonably well organized.
Can you possibly understand what a person with my disciplines at home must think of the EUROZONE?
The EUROZONE is everything I am not. Yet given the headcount and the minimal amount of actual work required to function, the EUROZONE could be the envy of all administrators and desk office organizers in the world. Why aren’t they?
The EUROZONE could be the “best practice” example touted all over the globe. However, it is not.
The EUROZONE is wasteful, costly, still an experiment and frankly completely lacking in an effective organizational structure. It is basically a shamble.
This begs the obvious question…
“In the name of all that is Holy how the feck is still in existence?”
That is the “Who wants to be a Millionaire” $64,000.00 question… I don’t know the answer.
How does this shambolic organization still manage to remain in existence? I did not use the words work or working deliberately when writing about the EUROZONE because that would mislead people.
If a visiting spaceship was to land in Brussels and go into one of the many EUROPEAN UNION buildings to “suss” out us humans of the planet earth, I reckon the would be fecked off out of Brussels within the hour, reporting back to base along the lines of “This planet is full of fecking idiots who do not know their arse’s from their elbows, leave these numpties alone – nothing to see here”.
On a serious note if there are beings from outer space let’s hope they do land in Brussels and not Silicone Valley. It’s a well-known fact you will get no common sense out of Brussels and any response you do get, you will not understand anyway. In Silicon Valley, they might actually see something worth talking.
Moving on…
Over the past five years or so, I have written so many times about the EUROZONE it just has to be my favourite subject. There is NOTHING about the EUROZONE that makes sense to me… I struggle to find just one thing.
Maybe the fact that Brussels is connected via the Channel Tunnel by high speed train from London is a good thing. Feck all use that’s going to be after BREXIT… no nothing good about Brussels.
Back on track…
Brussels is the “Can kicking down the road” world’s best champion. Every major issue, results with fudging the answer or providing a stop gap the solution. It is paradise for civil servants… maintain the status quo… do not rock the boat and plunder your way from catastrophe to catastrophe all without consequence as these people are all non-elected individuals. It is a Sir Humphrey Appleton existence, a plethora of pen pushing, desk sucking jotter blotters.
The EUROPEAN UNION politicians are only interested in popularity and accusations, pointing fingers and blaming their predecessors, they are simply not good at, or interested in fixing things and along with the Brussels civil service it is a marriage made in heaven.
All of this comes at a cost.
We have seen a dreadful failed German initiated policy of austerity, which plunged huge percentages of the population of Europe into unemployment, with failing support services like health, education and welfare being starved of cash at a time when it was needed the most.
Pensions were reduced, terms of employment extended… so much hardship was inflicted on the poorest part of the EU. Not exactly what you would call a union!!
There are 28 countries (at the moment) in the EUROPEAN UNION. 19 of these countries has adopted the single currency (EUR). This is effectively 19 countries with different needs, wants and desires and cultures using the same cheque book to function.
19 into 1 does not go…!
When times are hard this scenario of 19 into 1 is just exacerbated more and more. The one size fits all just DOES NOT work.
Born out of the EEC in 1999, the EUROPEAN UNION has had 17 years to fix basic standards of membership on:
- Tax Harmonization.
- Banking procedures.
- Social integration.
- Immigration
- Defence
I could write more. None of the above work. We are 17 years into a project, an experiment and frankly 17 years from now if the EUROZONE / EUROPEAN UNION is still in existence, it will probably mean that, “Hell must have frozen over” there can be no other explanation.
This year the EUROZONE / EUROPEAN UNION faces its biggest test so far, the “RISKS” are monumental.
- BREXIT
- A BREXIT CONTAGION
- RISE IN THE POPULIST VOTE
- IMMIGRATION INTO THE UNION
- ELECTIONS IN FRANCE, HOLLAND & GERMANY
- GREEK DEBT – ACT IV
There are a few more but let’s just stick with these standouts.
The EU is a disaster at problem solving, it could NOT coordinate a round of drinks for everyone even if they were sat in a brewery at the time.
There are concerns over a BREXIT CONTAGION, this is a real fear and it has never been addressed fully by the remaining EU partners.
I sometimes wonder does GERMANY want the EU to fail so they can blame the BREXIT and its fallout. This matter would definitely help all the German politicians and growing number of anti-European voices being heard in Germany.
The fact that apart from the “No special deals for the UK” nothing has been done to unify the remaining members to keep the far-right parties under wraps. In fact, the very opposite has taken place in FRANCE and ITALY…so far.
The immigration issue was the primary factor that pushed the BREXIT vote to win the day. Border controls are critical at most times given the terrorist society that we all live in now. Immigration into the EU is like a leaky bucket. Access into the EU illegally is simple through GREECE, ITALY, FRANCE and SPAIN etc. Whilst there are measures in place they are over-whelmed. The legal routes are at breaking point. There are some really sad cases and immigration rights can be argued for some, but for the volumes and costs that go with it, it is crippling and it is not measured accurately because the authorities at the access points are snowed under.
The populist vote is on the rise.
- Sovereignty
- Representation
- Immigration
- Trade
- Redistribution
- Anti-corporatism
These are the hallmarks of the far right. We now find these topics used in everyday conversations, something we didn’t see before. The following are right wing parties/groups that are now becoming more than just household names: –
- The Freedom Party (Austria)
- Vlaams Belang (Belgium)
- The Danish Peoples Party (Denmark)
- National Front (France)
- Syriza (Greece)
- Five Star Movement (Italy)
- Lega Nord ((Italy)
- Party for Freedom (Holland)
- Podermos (Spain)
- Swedish Democrats (Sweden)
There was a time these political parties would never get “air time” that’s all changed now.
GREECE cannot afford to repay the loans that the EU has saddled them with. It is a fact. Even with 10% inflation, which would never be allowed in the EU, the Greek government just could not repay its way out.
“Can we have some more sir” please… will be heard again in Brussels and Frankfurt sooner rather than later this year. Debt relief is the only answer…talk to yerself Pickering!!
We also have parliamentary elections in FRANCE, HOLLAND and GERMANY this year. There are zero guarantees on the outcomes.
The biggie is BREXIT. I cannot utter anything else on BREXIT other than given the general state of the EUROPEAN UNION partner economies, the EUROPEAN UNION has more to fear from a BREXIT than the UK in my opinion. I know that in recent months it could be argued that we have seen a bottom in the EUROZONE numbers and that data is improving. I would concede this point. However, we are working off such a low base, the recovery is quite fragile that in my opinion one huge geopolitical risk will place back a square one once again. There is more than one such geopolitical risk facing the EUROZONE.
All the above offers one thing… UNCERTAINTY… in fact its HUGE UNCERTAINTY on a scale not seen before. Given its record of dealing with major issues, I just cannot see the EUROPEAN UNION / EUROZONE surviving in its present shape.
It is so fecked up now before any of this really bites, it has real survival issues in my opinion.
Sell the EUR/USD on spikes is the trade. Hold your trades, do not oversize your positions. I believe it may stabilize in Q3 after the summer but prior to the summer of 2017 the EURO trade is just, in my opinion “SELL THE RIPS”
There are massive RISKS in EUROPE.
I know I am a little biased but you check it out yourself. I am not that far away from reality.
CLOSING THOUGHTS:
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,
As usual…
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Take care, have a great trading week.
Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/
BLOG VERSION: #45 FOREXTELL VERSION
DATE: 15th January 2017.
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