There has been a fair bit of FX movement already this week and some of this started in Monday’s Asian session. There have been 8 breakout trades from chart patterns posted over the w/e despite the US$ hanging in above a recent support level. This regime of watching for breakout moves from consolidation patterns is proving to be a reliable trading system.
A few important points to note:
- Silver has just edged above a 6-year bear trend line.
- The EUR/USD has now broken out from a potential 700 pip daily chart triangle.
- The GBP/USD is holding out from a potential 1,400 pips triangle breakout.
USDX daily: the US$ index is clinging to the last level of recent support with the 100 and Daily Cloud now behind it. There is a support trend line marking the ‘neck line’ of a wonky H&S and, if that gives way, I’d next be looking to the 61.8% fib and weekly support trend line.
Breakout trades so far this week: Breakout trades from chart patterns noted in my w/e analysis are noted below. The combined tally from all of these moves is 880 pips but please note this tally shows the maximum move on each pair but, clearly, it is not possible to capture all of these moves in full. However, the point is that these trend line breakouts generally point to a higher probability directional move that would hopefully enable traders to try and catch some chunk of this move.
Gold 4hr: 70 pips:
EUR/USD: 90 pips. Note how this is a breakout from a daily chart triangle pattern though and this triangle has a height of about 700 pips. Thus, the expected breakout move could be up to this order of magnitude which would bring price action up to the previous S/R level of 1.15:
GBP/USD: this potential 1,400 pip daily chart triangle breakout looks to be continuing and has given another 100 pips so far this week. Note how the 15 min chart gave a new TC LONG signal in the early Asia session with the break of this 4hr triangle trend line! Sadly, I missed this as I was out for much of the day:
G/U 15 min:
USD/JPY 4hr: only 50 pips so far:
GBP/AUD: this has given 150 pips and note also how the 15 min gave a new TC LONG signal along with the trend line break also in the early Asian session:
G/A 15 min:
GBP/NZD 4hr: this breakout has given 100 pips:
EUR/AUD: this breakout move has given 120 pips and note how the 15 min gave a new TC LONG signal along with the trend line break also in the early Asian session:
E/A 15 min:
USD/CNH 4hr: this triangle breakout gave 200 pips:
EUR/JPY 4hr: maybe a b/o starting here. Keep watch.
AUD/USD 4hr: still consolidating:
AUD/JPY daily: a bit lower this week but watch for any make or break at this daily support trend line:
GBP/JPY 4hr: still consolidating:
USD/CAD 4hr: ditto:
EUR/NZD 4hr: ditto:
USD/MXN 4hr: I mentioned on the w/e that I’d expect this to possibly test 19 as this is a major S/R region. Thus, watch 19 for any new make or break:
USD/TRY 4hr: still consolidating:
Silver: this very new trend line break marks a major breakout above a 6-year bear trend line. Traders need to watch to see whether this breakout holds after the daily, weekly and monthly candles close to support this major move.
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