Tue 25th: radar for today

The FX indices have essentially traded sideways to start the week and, apart from a spike with Gold and Silver, most FX pairs have chopped sideways too. The Aussie keeps trying to break higher though and remains resilient for the time being.

There is a bit of data to navigate today with EUR Ifo Business Climate, US Consumer Confidence and an ECB Draghi speech.

USDX: holding above 98.50 but not going too much higher just yet. Watch with today’s data though:

usdx4

EURX: holding up so far this week and watch the 100 level today with the EUR and US data:

eurx4

Yesterday’s TC Signal Results: the results from yesterday were pretty ordinary.

  • There were three SHORT US$ trades that triggered early in the European session that limped along in slightly positive territory for a while before eventually fading. I’ve called these FLAT and they were on the A/U LONG, EUR/USD LONG and GBP/USD LONG.
  • There was also a SHORT on the USD/CAD but that never got going and just went sideways before closing off for a LOSS.
  • There was a LONG on the EUR/NZD that went over 50 pips before closing off as one WIN.

More bitter sweet for me today in that three signals triggered already during the Asian session on the A/U, A/J and Kiwi for LONG:

A/U: this keeps trying to get above the major bear trend line. Any success could see this take off…despite all the sellers lining up here. Tomorrow brings AUD CPI data and this might be a deciding factor here:

au30min

NZD/USD:

kiwi30min

A/J: note also the Bull Flag style break on the 4hr that I had warned about over the w/e. The 80 level will be a tough one though but watch with tomorrow’s AUD CPI data:

aj30min aj4

Others:

E/U: watch today for any breakout with US data and the Draghi speech :

eu30min

EUR/GBP: a bit wary here with Brexit news and all but this weekly bearish pattern is rather interesting still. Watch for any make or break activity away from the 0.89 level:

egweekly eg30min

E/J: trying to break up and out of a longer-term triangle. Watch with Draghi:

ej30min

GBP/USD: a nice pattern so watch for any breakout but Brexit looms, as always, as a potential curve-ball:

gu30min

USD/JPY: has broken the 4hr Flag but I think a break of the previous high needs to be seen before being confident of any continuation move here. Continued moves higher with stocks could drag this along for the ride though:

uj4

USD/CAD: pretty undecided for now and hugging that major trend line:

loonie30min

EUR/CAD: choppy here for now but watch today with Draghi:

ec30min

EUR/NZD: choppy and no recent clear-cut signal:

en30

EUR/AUD: a triangle breakdown might be on the way but no clean-cut signal. Watch today with Draghi though:

ea30

Gold: spiked yesterday but back above the $1,265 level:

gold30min

Silver 4hr: holding above that support trend line still for now:

silver4hr

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