Turning JPY bullish

From the FXWW Chatroom – The latest data from the GPIF once again show little change in portfolio allocation weightings. This has been the case for the past three quarters and is consistent with our view that the Japanese portfolio reallocation process is now largely done. This removes one of the significant bearish factors for the JPY, in our view. Also we note the decline in the GPIF’s assets for 3Q, which suggests there is likely to be a reduced need to send funds overseas for investment. Moreover, net contributions to the GPIF have been running at net negative levels. This implies that the pension fund is no longer able to meet benefit payments from contributions. Benefit payments are likely to have to be met by investment income, which is likely to increasingly come from overseas. We see a similar situation developing when we examine the overall aggregate data for the Japanese pension industry. This changes the longer-term flow dynamics in Japan, turning them more JPY positive. Hence, our JPY bullish view for the coming year.

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