US$ at key support ahead of busy data week

The US$ chopped sideways last week as it tried to hold above a 3-year support trend line. Next week brings US FOMC and NFP that might get the the currency moving but there is a fair bit of Chinese and European PMI data that might impact here too.

USDX monthly: the monthly candle closed as bearish:

DXYmonthly

USDX weekly: the weekly candle closed below the 100 level but just above a 3-year support trend line. It’s not surprising to see that it closed as a bullish coloured ‘Spinning Top’ indecision candle:

DXYweeklyUSDXweeklyCloud

USDX daily: there is a recent support trend line in play as well:

USDXdaily

EURX weekly: the weekly candle closed as bullish above the 100 level BUT still within the Ichimoku Cloud:

EURXweekly

EURXweeklyCloud

FX Index Alignment: the FX Indices are close to tipping into FX Index Alignment for ‘risk on‘. The US$ index is below the 4hr and daily Cloud. The EUR$ index is above the 4hr Cloud but just at the top of the daily Cloud.

Calendar: It is a busy week with US data including FOMC and NFP but there is a lot of other data to impact the indices and risk appetite as well; with CNY PMIs and lots of European PMIs as just some. There may be some fallout too from President Trump’s 100th day where some are reporting a score of 1/10.

calendar

Summary: the US$ is resting above a significant support trend line and any breakdown would be bearish and most likely tip the FX Indices into alignment for ‘risk on’. Thus, watch the US$ for any make or break at this 3-year support trend line.

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