US$ decoupling?

We have had two strong pieces of US ‘jobs’ data this week with increased job openings and the 27th consecutive week of unemployment claims coming in below 300,000. Despite this good news the US$ is trading lower and either the market is becoming increasingly skeptical of a US rate hike, despite stronger data, or the US$ is decoupling from this ‘rate hike = strong US$’ wagon. Stocks closed lower yesterday with rate hike concern but there was none of that today. Apple led a tech stock rally and there has been a bit of ‘risk on‘ mood across FX and commodities. Momentum remains fairly low across many FX 4hr charts except on the suspected, and now fulfilled, move on the EUR/JPY. 

 USDX weekly: down for the week but still ranging ahead of next week’s FOMC:



EUR/JPY 4hr: I had suggest earlier in the week that if 134 was broken then this pair would most likely target the congested 136 zone. This level has now been reached :-)


GBP/JPY 4hr: this pair, too, looks like it might keep going to the suggested 189 congested zone:


E/U 4hr: still doing very little here ahead of FOMC:


GBP/USD 4hr: this has now pulled back to near the 1.55 level. This was a suggested target for any recovery move as it is previous S/R and near the monthly pivot, the 4hr 200 EMA and 50% fib and so there were lots of reasons to target this region. A close and hold back above 1.55 would suggest continuation.


AUD/USD 4hr: this is back above the 0.70 level and if commodities remain supported then this would help the A/U:


Kiwi: the RBNZ rate cut put pressure on this pair which could signal the start of the Bear Flag, however, price action has held up fairly well given US$ weakness. Any continued US$ weakness could undermine this bearish move:


Kiw 4hr: down but not out!


U/J 4hr: this is rather choppy in the lead up to FOMC too but has made it to the 50% fib and I’m still thinking a test of the 61.8% fib could be seen before the Fed meeting:


Loonie 4hr: still range bound:


GBP/AUD 4hr: increasingly choppy given both AUD and GBP strength:


GBP/NZD 4hr: no momentum based breakout here just yet:


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