The USD index rally has continued this week and, whereas I thought it would struggle for longer at the 61.8% fib, it has just cruised up through this major resistance and pivotal level.
The next major resistance level in its path is that of the monthly 200 EMA up near 83.50. The whole number 83 level might offer some challenge as well. The impact of the monthly 200 EMA resistance can be seen on the weekly and monthly charts below.
USDX weekly: the index has struggled at the monthly 200 EMA on a few occasions throughout 2012 and 2013.
USDX monthly: the monthly 200 EMA had been responsible for giving the index chart a bit of a ‘Double Top’ appearance. The question now is: will this resistance kick in again and give the chart a ‘Triple Top’ appearance?
The USDX has had little trouble knocking off recent resistance levels but NFP on Friday could pose a thought provoking pause here. Any potential bad print with this NFP data could be helped by the monthly 200 EMA to give this USD index a bit of grief. I’m not making any predictions here but merely warning to watch the USDX monthly 200 EMA at the 83.50 level for possible reaction on Friday with NFP.