Themes for the Week and Potential Opportunities
Recall that the summer doldrums are in full fledge. I still do not expect much volatility this week.
GBP: we will see the first ‘hard’ post-Brexit readings. Retail sales (Thu), Public finance data (Fri), inflation data (Tue), Employment data (Wed) which might be the least interesting data print as it’s the less timely.
USD: FOMC’s Minutes (Wed) might be less interesting as they preceed the conflicting signals given by the soft Q2 GDP, and the strength in employment. Fedspeak might be more infulential, with Dudley, Lockhart, Bullard and Williams. US CPI (Tue) are likely to see some headline drag from lower oil.
EUR: Beyond German ZEW there’s nothing worth noting.
JPY: Q2 GDP (Mon) are backward looking and can’t shed any light on prospects for further BoJ easing in September.
Comm-Dolls: for the AUD we have RBA August Board minutes (Tue),Wages Price Index (Wed) and, importantly, the August employment data (Thur). What might also be interesting is to read Governor Stevens Speech http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2016/sp-gov-2016-08-10.html. CAD has Retail Sales and CPI (Fri).
Going into the week, Crude remains strong and might keep equity markets buoyant and also support Cad. Gbp weakness remains pronounced and GbpCad/GbpJpy might provide further downside. UsdCad is also under scrutiny as we have broken 1.3000.