| EURUSD: 1.1899 |
| EurUsd is higher on Friday after having bounced off the rising trend support but has been unable to hold on to its highs at 1.1931 and is closing back below 1.1900. Further choppy trade above 1.1800 looks likely. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed | Daily Indicators: Up | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The dailies remain constructive so further progress may be seen but the short term momentum indicators look less certain of such a move today. I prefer to remain neutral for now. Looking to trade a range od 1.1850/1.1950 may be a plan today. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.2004 | 22 Sept high | 1.1885 | Minor | ||
| 1.1985 | Minor | 1.1850 | Minor | ||
| 1.1960/64 | 27 Nov high / (76.4% of 1.2091/1.1553) | 1.1830 | Rising trend support | ||
| 1.1950 | Minor | 1.1805 | (38.2% of 1.1553/1.1943)/Session low | ||
| 1.1931 | Session low | 1.1775 | 100 DMA/55 DMA | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
EU Manufacturing PMIs, Feds Bullard, Kaplan speeches
…
| USDJPY: 112.51 |
| US$Jpy is firmer again today, underpinned by broadly rising US rates and stocks, although it did see a brief dip and reverse on the Tillerson story in falling to the session low of 111.73. Now up against decent resistance at around 112.75, a break would suggest a run towards 113.20. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mildly Bullish | Daily Indicators: Turning higher? | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: With the daily momentum indicators looking a little more positive, I prefer to lean towards the upside, looking for a break of 113.70 for a move towards 113.20. Support should now be seen at 112.20/30.Buy US$Jpy @ 112.30. SL @ 111.90, TP @ 113.20 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 113.80 | (76.4% of 114.73/110.83) | 112.30 | Weekly cloud top | ||
| 113.20 | (61.8% of 114.73/110.83) | 112.00 | Minor | ||
| 113.00 | Minor | 111.73/70 | Session low/100 DMA/200 DMA | ||
| 112.75 | (50% of 114.73/110.83)/Daily cloud top/Daily Kijun | 111.35 | 29 Nov low | ||
| 112.63 | Session high | 111.02 | (50% pivot of 107.31/114.73) | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
CPI, Unemployment
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3522 |
| Sterling continues to benefit from the more positive Brexit headlines and the momentum indicators suggest that further gains lie ahead although the hourly charts are now becoming overbought | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up | Daily Indicators: Turning higher | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The initial resistance lies at 1.3550 but if that is taken out, and then there is little to stop a move towards 1.3600 and eventually to the September high at 1.3656. I prefer to trade from the long side and think Sterling has further good gains ahead of it against both the dollar and on the crosses.Buy GbpUsd @ 1.3485. SL @ 1.3390, TP @ 1.3650
Buy GbpAud @ 1.7780 SL @ 1.7680, TP @ 1.7900 Sell EurGbp @ 0.8840. SL @ 0.8885, TP @ 0.8760 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.3656 | 20 Sept high | 1.3500 | Minor | ||
| 1.3625 | Minor | 1.3480 | Minor | ||
| 1.3595 | 22 Sept high | 1.3430 | (23.6% of 1.3038/1.3548) | ||
| 1.3570 | Minor | 1.3406 | Session low | ||
| 1.3548 | Session high | 1.3385 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Manufacturing PMI
…
| USDCHF: 0.9841 |
| US$Chf is unchanged after a similar range to the previous session, of 0.9815/81. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Neutral | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The momentum indicators are still offering little hint either way, and a neutral stance is required although out of choice I prefer to trade the dollar from the long side.Buy US$Chf @ 0.9800. SL @ 0.9770, TP @ 0.9900 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.9960 | Minor | 0.9835 | 100 WMA | ||
| 0.9946 | 21 Nov high | 0.9815 | Session low | ||
| 0.9905 | (76.4% of 0.9946/0.9776) | 0.9805/00 | 200 DMA /28 Nov low | ||
| 0.9880 | (61.8% of 0.9946/0.9776)Session high | 0.9776 | 27 Nov low | ||
| 0.9860 | Minor | 0.9727 | (50% of 0.9420/1.0037) | ||
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7563 |
| After a choppy day, AudUsd is heavy at the end of the US session and seems set to remain so in the days ahead. The spike higher today in US yields will not help the Aud as we approach the December FOMC Meeting and a test of 0.7500 looks increasingly possible. Housing data and the Australian/Caixin China Manufacturing PMI are due today along with the local Housing data. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Pointing mildly higher | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: Another choppy session could be in store although I lean towards selling into rallies, looking for an eventual test of 0.7500, and lower, as we approach the next Fed meeting on Dec 13.Sell AudUsd @ 0.7585. SL @ 0.7615, TP @ 0.7500 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7665 | 13 Nov high /(23.6% of 0.8102/0.7531) | 0.7551 | 29 Nov low (61.8% of 0.7159/0.8124) | ||
| 0.7644 | 27 Nov high | 0.7531 | 21 Nov low /100 WMA | ||
| 0.7620 | 28 Nov high | 0.7515 | (76.4% of 0.7328/0.8124) | ||
| 0.7606 | 29 Nov high | 0.7500 | Minor | ||
| 0.7594 | Session high | 0.7475 | Rising trend support | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
HIA New Home Sales, RBA Commodity Index, Australian/Caixin China Manufacturing PMIs
…
| NZDUSD: 0.6835 |
| The Kiwi is lower again today and looks set for a test of 0.6800 at some stage. Watch the Terms of Trade (exp +0.9%) which could provide some volatility. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning Neutral | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: Selling rallies still seems to be the plan, with a SL today placed above 0.6880.In the bigger picture, with the longer term (weekly) charts looking heavy, I suspect the Kiwi is currently biding its time ahead of a more sustained test of the downside. In the short term though, I suspect another test of 0.6920/30 may lie ahead and it is possible that we could even see a return to the neckline of the major head and shoulders, at 0.6990, before heading lower.
Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6850. SL @ 0.6885, TP @ 0.6775 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.6933 | (23.6% of 0.7434/0.6783) | 0.6829 | Session low | ||
| 0.6928 | 29 Nov high | 0.6800 | Minor | ||
| 0.6900 | Minor | 0.6779 | 17 Nov low | ||
| 0.6870 | 200 HMA | 0.6750 | Minor | ||
| 0.6950 | Minor | 0.6725 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
NZ Terms of Trade
By December 1, 2017
Source: FXCharts