| EURUSD: 1.2199 |
| EurUsd is trading at 1.2200 on Thursday having broken the previous 1.2205 support and so far having traded down to 1.2187. The techs look heavy but direction today will be driven by the EU February PMIs, the US January core PCE. The Fed’s Powell and Dudley are risks as well. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? – Possible topping formation. | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are pointing lower and a retest of 1.2185 seems likely, and with the dailies also looking heavy we could be in for a run towards the Fibo support at 1.2170 and the 18 Jan low of 1.2164. Under there opens the way to more distant support, the rising trend support from April 2017, currently some way off at 1.2070. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1.2240 and then at 1.2275/85 and beyond there at 1.2300.I prefer to look for levels to sell at around 1.2240 today, hoping for a run back down to 1.2185 and possibly to 1.2170, or even lower. SL should be above1.2290.
Sell EurUsd @ 1.2240. SL @ 1.2290, TP @ 1.2170 |
|||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.2359 | 21 Feb high | 1.2200 | Minor | ||
| 1.2325 | 200 HMA | 1.2187 | Session low | ||
| 1.2285 | 100 HMA | 1.2170 | (38.2% of 1.1553/1.2550) | ||
| 1.2260 | Minor | 1.2164 | 18 Jan low | ||
| 1.2240 | Session high | 1.2135 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
German Import/Export Index- Q4, EU Mfg PMIs, EU Unemployment – Jan, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure Price Index – Jan, Personal Income/Spending – Jan, Jobless Claims, US Mfg PMI – Feb, ISM Mfg/Prices Paid – Feb, Construction Spending – Jan, Total Vehicle Sales -Feb,
…
| USDJPY: 106.74 |
| US$Jpy ran out of steam above 107.00 as the day wore on, with exporter interest evident and helping to push the pair lower. The minor tightening yesterday by the BOJ did not help the dollar and it does look heavy although note that there are huge 107 expires next week suggesting some consolidation ahead of next week’s BOJ Meeting and Friday’s NFPs. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning higher | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: US$Jpy looks heavy today although with the dollar looking bid elsewhere, it may be that we just chop around current levels and I suspect trading the range 106.35/107.00 may cover it. The Nikkei Mfg PMI may provide some minor interest but it should be a battle of importers/exporters as we approach the Japan F/Y end. Sidelined. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 107.89 | 14 Feb high /21 Feb high | 106.56 | Session low | ||
| 107.76 | 22 Feb high | 106.37 | 26 Jan low | ||
| 107.51 | Session high | 106.10 | Minor | ||
| 107.30 | Minor | 105.90 | Minor | ||
| 107.00 | 200 HMA | 106.54 | 16 Feb low | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Nikkei Mfg PMI – Feb, Consumer Confidence Index – Feb
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3768 |
| Cable was choppy in Europe but then headed lower after Barnier’s hard-line Brexit comments and is finishing the day on session lows. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning lower. | Weekly Indicators: Possible topping formation. | |||
| Preferred Strategy: Cable remains very choppy, but has reached the rising trend support that we mentioned yesterday, currently sitting at 1.3770. A break of this seems likely and the target would then be the Fibo level at 1.3690, below which there is little to hold Cable up until 1.3600/15. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1.3800/30. Selling rallies seems to be the plan. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.3950 | (61.8% of 1.4070/1.3755) | 1.3770 | Session low /Rising trend support | ||
| 1.3916 | Session high | 1.3764 | 9 Feb low | ||
| 1.3877 | (38.2% of 1.4070/1.3755) | 1.3740 | Minor | ||
| 1.3830 | (23.6% of 1.4070/1.3755) | 1.3690 | (50% pivot of 1.3062/1.4345) | ||
| 1.3800 | Minor | 1.3615 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
UK Mfg PMI – Jan, Consumer Credit – Jan
…
| USDCHF: 0.9441 |
| US$Chf has traded higher again today, in reaching 0.9457 from a 0.9383 low, but is now back below 0.9440 although possibly just for a breather before heading higher again later. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Up | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: As before, the dailies look constructive, so I prefer to look to buy dips, possibly around 0.9400, with a SL placed at 0.9360. The immediate target is 0.9460, and above there we may get a chance to see 0.9500/10 and beyond. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.9530 | Minor | 0.9410 | Minor | ||
| 0.9510 | (38.2% of 1.0037 /0.9187) | 0.9395 | (23.6% of 0.9187/0.9458) | ||
| 0.9485 | Minor | 0.9383 | Session low | ||
| 0.9469 | 8 Feb low | 0.9355 | (38.2% of 0.9187/0.9458) | ||
| 0.9457 | Session high | 0.9324/25 | 26 Jan low /(50% of 0.9187/0.9458) | ||
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7768 |
| The Aud is trading right on the important 0.7760 support ahead of today’s Capex data, and with the momentum indicators looking heavy it would seem that we have further downside ahead of us. The Caixin Mfg PMI is also due. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower. | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower? | |||
| Preferred Strategy:The momentum indicators are all looking heavy on Thursday, so trading from the short side and selling rallies is preferred. If we do see a squeeze higher, look to sell at around 0.7815, hoping for a return to 0.7760/70. This level is currently holding the Aud up and we may not see any rally, particularly if the Capex disappoints, and a break of 0.7760 will target 0.7745, below which there is little to hold the Aud up until 0.7650 (76.4% of 0.7501/0.8135).
Sell AudUsd @ 0.7815. SL @ 0.7770, TP @ 0.7745. |
|||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7901 | 21 Feb high | 0.7780 | Session low | ||
| 0.7892 | 26 Jan high | 0.7777/72 | 200 DMA/100 DMA | ||
| 0.7867 | 27 Feb high | 0.7758 | 9 Feb low | ||
| 0.7850 | Minor | 0.7743 | (61.8% of 0.7501/0.8135) | ||
| 0.7818 | Session high | 0.7720 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
AIG Performance of Mfg Index – Feb, CAPEX – Q4, Caixin China Mfg PMI
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7210 |
| The Kiwi is heavy but currently holding on above 0.7200 after having earlier traded up to 0.7244. The Terms of Trade coming up. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators still look heavy so I prefer to trade for the short side and to sell rallies with a SL placed above 0.7270, with the target being the major Fibo level at around 0.7185, (38.2% of 0.6780/0.7438). A close below the 8 Feb low of 0.7176 would eventually suggest lower levels still, but we have to wait and see on that. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7385 | 21 Feb high | 0.7208 | Session low | ||
| 0.7375 | Minor | 0.7200 | Minor | ||
| 0.7364 | 22 Feb high | 0.7176 | 8 Feb low | ||
| 0.7344 | 23 Feb high/26 Jan high | 0.7170 | 200 DMA | ||
| 0.7325 | Minor | 0.7140 | 10 Jan low | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Terms of Trade – Q4
…