| EURUSD: 1.1863 |
| Preferred Strategy: The US$ remains under pressure following the FOMC Minutes, with the next directional move likely to come via tomorrow’s CPI figure. In the meantime, the momentum indicators are looking quite positive for the Euro, with the dailies are now pointing a little higher, suggesting that the downside will again be rather limited today. The neckline of the head/shoulder is at 1.1870, and we do not really want to head any higher for it to remain valid or there will be strong dollar liquidation which would see the Euro head towards 1.1900/1.2000. The downside currently looks underpinned at around 1.1800 although I would be surprised to see it trade down there again today. Overall, another range trade may be the plan for Thursday (1.1800/1.1900), but a daily close above 1.1870 would suggest that we are in for further dollar weakness in the days ahead. Taking a punt on the Head/Shoulder formation remaining intact: Sell EurUsd @ 1.1870. SL @ 1.1905, TP @ 1.1770 | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1930 | (61.8% of 1.2092/1.1669) | 1.1840 | Minor |
| 1.1920 | Descending trend resistance | 1.1825 | Minor |
| 1.1900 | Minor | 1.1795 | Session low |
| 1.1882 | (50% of 1.2092/1.1669) | 1.1760 | 200 HMA |
| 1.1867/70 | Session high /Neckline resistance | 1.1738 | 10 Oct low |
Economic data highlights will include:
EU Industrial Production, US PPI, Monthly Budget Statement, Jobless Claims, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change , ECB Speakers; Praet, Draghi, Coeure & Lautenschlager
…
| USDJPY: 112.49 |
| Preferred Strategy: The dollar remains rangebound within 112.00/113.00, (112.07/112.58), and similar conditions appear set to continue. As before, I think the dollar will eventually head higher, so buying dips is preferred although for the time being another tight range could be in store while waiting on tomorrow’s US CPI figure. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 113.55 | Minor | 112.07 | Session low |
| 113.43 | 6 Oct high | 111.98/112.00 | 10 Oct low/(23.6% of 107.31/113.43) |
| 113.20 | Minor | 111.80 | Minor |
| 113.00 | Minor | 111.65 | Minor |
| 112.74 | 9 Oct high | 111.46 | 25 Sept low |
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3224 |
| Preferred Strategy: Cable has had another solid session, underpinned by the softer US$ and closing the day near the highs of 1.3234 The charts remain mixed, so a neutral stance is required but overall, with the dailies still looking heavy, selling into near term strength may be the plan. In the meantime, the 4 hour charts are picking up a positive mood, so a near term moves towards 1.3260/90 would not surprise. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.3340 | (50% of 1.3656/1.3026) | 1.3175 | Session low |
| 1.3292 | 4 Oct high | 1.3145 | 100 HMA |
| 1.3265 | (38.2% of 1.3656/1.3026) | 1.3130 | 10 Oct low |
| 1.3250 | Minor | 1.3100 | Minor |
| 1.3235 | Session high | 1.3075 | 9 Oct low |
Economic data highlights will include:
T: BOE Credit Conditions Survey
…
| USDCHF: 0.9731 |
| Preferred Strategy: Having broken down through the previous rising trend support, US$Chf remains heavy and has traded down to 0.9716, with little bounce heading into the US close. The dailies appear to have run out of steam on the topside, and with the 4 hour charts looking heavy a retest of the lows and possibly 0.9700 would not really surprise today. In the medium term I still like the dollar higher though, looking for a return towards 0.9800 and eventually for a run towards parity although it will take a decent US CPI figure tomorrow to see us make any headway. A close above the 200-DMA (0.9850) would help extend the uptrend – patience may be required! Neutral. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9850 | 200 WMA | 0.9716 | Session low |
| 0.9835 | 200 DMA/(61.8% of 1.0099/0.9420) /6 Oct high | 0.9710 | 4 Oct low |
| 0.9807 | 9 Oct high | 0.9685 | Minor |
| 0.9789 | 10 Oct high | 0.9676 | 2 Oct low (38.2% of 0.9420/0.9836) / |
| 0.97766 | Session high | 0.9642 | 25 Sept low |
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7789 |
| Preferred Strategy: The Aud reached a high of 0.7808 on Wednesday but is now back below 0.7800 and appears set to remain rangebound again today although the local data may cause some minor volatility (Home Loan/Consumer Confidence). The short term momentum indicators are mildly positive, but with the dailies still pointing lower, selling rallies still appears to be the plan. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7872 | (38.2% of 0.8102/0.7732) | 0.7770 | Session low |
| 0.7850 | Minor | 0.7749/47 | 10 Oct low /9 Oct low |
| 0.7830 | 200 HMA | 0.7732 | 6 Oct low |
| 0.7815 | Descending trend resistance/(23.6% of 0.8102/0.7732) | 0.7725 | (50% pivot of 0.7328/0.8125) |
| 0.7808/05 | Session high /200 HMA | 0.7700 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
WBC Consumer Confidence, Home Loans, Investment Lending for Homes, China Foreign Direct Investment
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7084 |
| Preferred Strategy: The Kiwi remains heavy but is holding on above its trend lows while waiting on a result from the political uncertainty following the recent election, and until that occurs (today?) it is likely to remain under pressure. A neutral stance is currently wise although, with a political alliance between the NZ1st / National parties could see a quick squeeze higher. A labour coalition would send the Kiwi sharply lower. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7180 | Minor | 0.7070 | Minor |
| 0.7165 | 5 Oct high | 0.7055 | 10 Oct low |
| 0.7145 | (23.6% of 0.7434/0.7058) | 0.7035 | Minor |
| 0.7118 | 6 Oct high | 0.7010 | Minor |
| 0.7098 | Session high | 0.6990 | (76.4% of 0.6817/0.7528) |
Economic data highlights will include:
T: Food Price Index,
By October 12, 2017
Source: FXCharts