| EURUSD: 1.2288 |
| EurUsd has been choppy on Monday and the action lay elsewhere – in the stock markets -, with the pair closing not too far from where it spent much of the session, after a range of 1.2235/1.2896, leaving the overall outlook unchanged. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed. Turning higher? | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? | |||
| Preferred Strategy: With the daily momentum indicators generally pointing lower, further losses still seem possible in the days ahead and a break of 1.2235, and then of the 9 Feb trend low of 1.2205, would hint at a move towards 1.2160, which should be decent support if we see it. Below there, there is little to hold the Euro up until 1.2090/1.2100.In the meantime, the short term momentum indicators look mildly positive, and on the topside resistance will be seen at 1.2295/1.2300 and at 1.2330. Beyond their looks doubtful today given the lack of economic drivers, but if wrong, look for a run towards 1.2370 which, if seen, would be a decent sell area I think.
Selling rallies is preferred for the medium term trade, with 1.2330 looking toppish today. In the absence of any EU/US data it may end up being another tight session. Sell EurUsd @ 1.2330. SL @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2210 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.2408 | (61.8% of 1.2537/1.2204) | 1.2235 | Session low | ||
| 1.2370 | (50% of 1.2537/1.2204) | 1.2205 | 9 Feb low | ||
| 1.2330 | (38.2% of 1.2537/1.2204) | 1.2180 | Minor | ||
| 1.2296 | Session high | 1.2160 | (38.2% of 1.1553/1.2538) | ||
| 1.2283/86 | (23.6% of 1.2537/1.2204) | 1.2135 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
NFIB Business Optimism Index, API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
W: German CPI/HICP, German/EU GDP, Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, CPI, Business Inventories, EIA weekly crude oil stock change
T: EU Trade Balance, New York State Empire Mfg Index, US PPI, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey, Jobless Claims, Capacity Utilisation,
F: German Wage Price Index, US Housing Starts, Building Permits, Import/Export Index
…
| USDJPY: 108.70 |
| US$Jpy had a tight Monday session, trading within 108.43/88, unable to benefit from the move higher in the US stock markets today or even to follow the move in US yields. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher? | Daily Indicators: Turning Neutral | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: After a tight range, the levels to watch are currently unchanged.On the downside, below the session low of 108.43 would allow a run back to 108.00/10, a break of which would then find little to hold the dollar up until rising trend support at 107.80 and the 2017 low at 107.32.
On the topside, back above the 108.88 Monday high, resistance will be seen at 109.00 and again at the 9 Feb high of 109.30, above which could see 109.75 and even 110.00+. Sidelined. |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 110.00 | Minor | 108.43 | Session low | ||
| 109.77 | 8 Feb high | 108.04 | 9 Feb low | ||
| 109.50 | Minor | 107.80 | Rising trend support | ||
| 109.30 | 9 Feb high /200 HMA | 107.50 | Minor | ||
| 108.88 | Session high | 107.31 | 8 Nov low | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Q4 Corporate Goods Price Index
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3834 |
| Sterling had a choppy day (1.3795/1.3875), leaving the outlook largely unchanged.As we said before, there will be plenty of Brexit speeches this week, with UK PM, May speaking in Munich at the weekend. Before then, Foreign Minister, Boris Johnson will speak on Wednesday, and further speeches are due from Brexit minister David Davis, Trade minister Liam Fox, and Cabinet Minister David Lidington – dates to be confirmed. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral | Daily Indicators: Down. | Weekly Indicators: Up –Possible topping formation. | |||
| Preferred Strategy: As we said previously, Cable remains very choppy in the short term but the daily momentum indicators still hint that the general direction will be lower, so trading from the short side is still preferred.While the short term momentum indicators look neutral I would stand aside but the dailies still look heavy and I suspect another run towards 1.3765 could be on the cards at some stage, below which would open the way to 1.3690/00.
On the topside, the initial Fibo resistance will be seen at 1.3875 and again at 1.3900 and using this as a guide to sell into is preferred today. Sell GbpUsd @ 1.3910. SL @ 1.3955, TP @ 1.3835 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.3986 | 9 Feb high | 1.3795 | Session low | ||
| 1.3940 | Minor | 1.3764 | 9 Feb low | ||
| 1.3900 | (23.6% of 1.4315/1.3764) | 1.3735 | Minor | ||
| 1.3875 | Session high | 1.3690 | (50% of 1.3038/1.4345) | ||
| 1.3845 | Minor | 1.3650 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
UK CPI, PPI, RPI
…
| USDCHF: 0.9388 |
| US$Chf has traded a tight 0.9363/0.9403, leaving the outlook unchanged. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral. | Daily Indicators: Turning higher | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are neutral, suggesting more range trading ahead but the daily charts are turning higher, so looking to buy dips towards 0.9335/55 seems to be the plan, hoping for a continuation of the squeeze higher, eventually towards 0.9470 and possibly on to 0.9500.On the downside, support will be seen at 0.9335/50 ahead of 0.9290/0.9300.
Buy US$Chf @ 0.9340. SL @ 0.9285, TP @ 0.9465 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.9500 | Minor | 0.9363 | Session low | ||
| 0.9469 | 8 Feb high | 0.9355 | Daily Tenkan | ||
| 0.9450 | Minor | 0.9335/39 | 200 HMA /7 Feb low | ||
| 0.9425 | Minor | 0.9300 | Minor | ||
| 0.9403/08 | Session high/9 Feb high | 0.9250 | 2 Feb low | ||
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7849 |
| AudUsd has been the winner today, squeezing up from its opening levels, to finish at session highs of 0.7850. Further gains may be seen if the NAB Business Conditions/Confidence data is positive. There is also a speech by the RBA’s Luci Ellis at the ABE Forecasting conference, Sydney | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Down | Weekly Indicators: Neutral – Turning higher? | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The technical picture for the Aud is mixed again on Tuesday and a cautious stance is required. While the dailies still point lower, the 4 hour charts hint that the current bounce could continue and above the current levels could see an extension towards 0.7870/90 and possibly back to 0.7900/10. Th dailies still look heavy though and the downside will again see bids at 0.7800/10, at 0.7780 and at 0.7755/60 although I don’t see the Aud back below 0.7800 today.Sell AudUsd @ 0.7900. SL @ 0.7930, TP @ 0.7830 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7945 | (50% of 0.8135/0.7758) | 0.7825 | 200 WMA | ||
| 0.7908 | 7 Feb high | 0.7809 | Session low | ||
| 0.7900 | (38.2% of 0.8135/0.7758) | 0.7780 | 100 DMA | ||
| 0.7875 | Minor | 0.7762/58 | (38.2% of 0.7160/0.8135)/9 Feb low | ||
| 0.7846 | Session high /(23.6% of 0.8135/0.7758) | 0.7752 | 200 DMA | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
RBA Asst. Governor Ellis Speech, NAB Business Confidence/Conditions
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7250 |
| The Kiwi has been choppy on Monday (0.7331/76) but has finished where it began the day, leaving the outlook unchanged. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Down | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The 4 hour charts are hinting that we could see a continuation of the current bounce from last week’s lows, although the dailies remain heavy and selling rallies is preferred for the medium term trade. Right now though a move towards 0.7275 and possibly back to 0.7300+ would not surprise. Using any strength to sell into is still the plan though, looking for an eventual move back to 0.7200 and to the recent low of 7176, below which opens 0.7145.Selling near-term rallies towards 0.7300 may now be the plan, with a SL placed above 0.7330.
Sell NzdUsd @ 0.7300. SL @ 0.7330, TP @ 0.7190 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7345 | 7 Feb high | 0.7231 | Session low | ||
| 0.7330 | Minor | 0.7197 | 9 Feb low | ||
| 0.7295 | 200 HMA | 0.7187 | (38.2% of 0.6780/0.7364) | ||
| 0.7276 | Session high | 0.7176 | 8 Feb low | ||
| 0.7250 | 100 HMA | 0.7145 | 200 DMA | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Food Price Index
By February 13, 2018