13 Feb: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas: FXCharts

EURUSD: 1.2288
EurUsd has been choppy on Monday and the action lay elsewhere – in the stock markets -, with the pair closing not too far from where it spent much of the session, after a range of 1.2235/1.2896, leaving the overall outlook unchanged.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed. Turning higher? Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher?
Preferred Strategy:  With the daily momentum indicators generally pointing lower, further losses still seem possible in the days ahead and a break of 1.2235, and then of the 9 Feb trend low of 1.2205, would hint at a move towards 1.2160, which should be decent support if we see it. Below there, there is little to hold the Euro up until 1.2090/1.2100.In the meantime, the short term momentum indicators look mildly positive, and on the topside resistance will be seen at 1.2295/1.2300 and at 1.2330. Beyond their looks doubtful today given the lack of economic drivers, but if wrong, look for a run towards 1.2370 which, if seen, would be a decent sell area I think.

Selling rallies is preferred for the medium term trade, with 1.2330 looking toppish today. In the absence of any EU/US data it may end up being another tight session.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.2330. SL @ 1.2380, TP @ 1.2210

Resistance Support
1.2408 (61.8% of 1.2537/1.2204) 1.2235 Session low
1.2370 (50% of 1.2537/1.2204) 1.2205 9 Feb low
1.2330 (38.2% of 1.2537/1.2204) 1.2180 Minor
1.2296 Session high 1.2160 (38.2% of 1.1553/1.2538)
1.2283/86 (23.6% of 1.2537/1.2204) 1.2135 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

NFIB Business Optimism Index, API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

W: German CPI/HICP, German/EU GDP, Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, CPI, Business Inventories, EIA weekly crude oil stock change

T: EU Trade Balance, New York State Empire Mfg Index, US PPI, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey, Jobless Claims, Capacity Utilisation,

F: German Wage Price Index, US Housing Starts, Building Permits, Import/Export Index

USDJPY: 108.70
US$Jpy had a tight Monday session, trading within 108.43/88,  unable to benefit from the move higher in the US stock markets today or even to follow the move in US yields.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher? Daily Indicators: Turning Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  After a tight range, the levels to watch are currently unchanged.On the downside, below the session low of 108.43 would allow a run back to 108.00/10, a break of which would then find little to hold the dollar up until rising trend support at 107.80 and the 2017 low at 107.32.

On the topside, back above the 108.88 Monday high, resistance will be seen at 109.00 and again at the 9 Feb high of 109.30, above which could see 109.75 and even 110.00+.


Resistance Support
110.00 Minor 108.43 Session low
109.77 8 Feb  high 108.04 9 Feb low
109.50 Minor 107.80 Rising trend support
109.30 9 Feb high /200 HMA 107.50 Minor
108.88 Session high 107.31 8 Nov low

Economic data highlights will include:

Q4 Corporate Goods Price Index

GBPUSD: 1.3834
Sterling had a choppy day (1.3795/1.3875), leaving the outlook largely unchanged.As we said before, there will be plenty of Brexit speeches this week, with UK PM, May speaking in Munich at the weekend. Before then, Foreign Minister, Boris Johnson will speak on Wednesday, and further speeches are due from Brexit minister David Davis, Trade minister Liam Fox, and Cabinet Minister David Lidington – dates to be confirmed.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Down. Weekly Indicators:  Up –Possible topping formation.
Preferred Strategy:  As we said previously, Cable remains very choppy in the short term but the daily momentum indicators still hint that the general direction will be lower, so trading from the short side is still preferred.While the short term momentum indicators look neutral I would stand aside but the dailies still look heavy and I suspect another run towards 1.3765 could be on the cards at some stage, below which would open the way to 1.3690/00.

On the topside, the initial Fibo resistance will be seen at 1.3875 and again at 1.3900 and using this as a guide to sell into is preferred today.

Sell GbpUsd @ 1.3910. SL @ 1.3955, TP @ 1.3835

Resistance Support
1.3986 9 Feb high 1.3795 Session low
1.3940 Minor 1.3764 9 Feb low
1.3900 (23.6% of 1.4315/1.3764) 1.3735 Minor
1.3875 Session high 1.3690 (50% of 1.3038/1.4345)
1.3845 Minor 1.3650 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                                                    


USDCHF: 0.9388
US$Chf has traded a tight 0.9363/0.9403, leaving the outlook unchanged.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral. Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:   Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators are neutral, suggesting more range trading ahead but the daily charts are turning higher, so looking to buy dips towards 0.9335/55 seems to be the plan, hoping for a continuation of the squeeze higher, eventually towards 0.9470 and possibly on to 0.9500.On the downside, support will be seen at 0.9335/50 ahead of 0.9290/0.9300.

Buy US$Chf @ 0.9340. SL @ 0.9285, TP @ 0.9465

Resistance Support
0.9500 Minor 0.9363 Session low
0.9469 8 Feb  high 0.9355 Daily Tenkan
0.9450 Minor 0.9335/39 200 HMA /7 Feb  low
0.9425 Minor 0.9300 Minor
0.9403/08 Session high/9 Feb high 0.9250 2 Feb low

AUDUSD: 0.7849
 AudUsd has been the winner today, squeezing up from its opening levels, to finish at session highs of 0.7850. Further gains may be seen if the NAB Business Conditions/Confidence data is positive. There is also a  speech by the RBA’s Luci Ellis at the ABE Forecasting conference, Sydney
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Down Weekly Indicators:  Neutral – Turning higher?
Preferred Strategy:   The technical picture for the Aud is mixed again on Tuesday and a cautious stance is required. While the dailies still point lower, the 4 hour charts hint that the current bounce could continue and above the current levels could see an extension towards 0.7870/90 and possibly back to 0.7900/10. Th dailies still look heavy though and the downside will again see bids at 0.7800/10, at 0.7780 and at 0.7755/60 although I don’t see the Aud back below 0.7800 today.Sell AudUsd @ 0.7900. SL @ 0.7930, TP @ 0.7830
Resistance Support
0.7945 (50% of 0.8135/0.7758) 0.7825 200 WMA
0.7908 7 Feb  high 0.7809 Session low
0.7900 (38.2% of 0.8135/0.7758) 0.7780 100 DMA
0.7875 Minor 0.7762/58 (38.2% of 0.7160/0.8135)/9 Feb low
0.7846 Session high /(23.6% of 0.8135/0.7758) 0.7752 200 DMA

Economic data highlights will include:

RBA Asst. Governor Ellis Speech, NAB Business Confidence/Conditions

NZDUSD: 0.7250
The Kiwi has been choppy on Monday (0.7331/76) but has finished where it began the day, leaving the outlook unchanged.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher Daily Indicators:  Down Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher?
Preferred Strategy:    The 4 hour charts are hinting that we could see a continuation of the current bounce from last week’s lows, although the dailies remain heavy and selling rallies is preferred for the medium term trade. Right now though a move towards 0.7275 and possibly back to 0.7300+ would not surprise.  Using any strength to sell into is still the plan though, looking for an eventual move back to 0.7200 and to the recent low of 7176, below which opens 0.7145.Selling near-term rallies towards 0.7300 may now be the plan, with a SL placed above 0.7330.

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.7300. SL @ 0.7330, TP @ 0.7190

Resistance Support
0.7345 7 Feb  high 0.7231 Session low
0.7330 Minor 0.7197 9 Feb low
0.7295 200 HMA 0.7187 (38.2% of 0.6780/0.7364)
0.7276 Session high 0.7176 8 Feb  low
0.7250 100 HMA 0.7145 200 DMA

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                                                                             

Food Price Index

By | February 13, 2018
Source: FXCharts

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