14 Feb: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas: FXCharts

EURUSD: 1.2356
EurUsd has squeezed slowly higher on Tuesday, reaching 1.2370 and closing near the highs, with the Euro seeing some demand through the crosses as well, while waiting on today’s upcoming German/US CPI figures.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed. Turning higher? Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher?
Preferred Strategy:  The Euro has reached 1.2370, as we thought possible yesterday, and the 4 hour charts now look as though we could be in for further gains, which could see 1.2400/10, beyond which could head towards 1.2440/60.The dailies are still looking heavy though, and a decent US CPI will see a bid tone return to the dollar, allowing a return to 1.2280/00, below which would suggest a move back towards 1.2200/30.

Overall, given the mixed nature of the charts look for further choppy trade within the recent range in the 1.2250/1.2450 area.

Resistance Support
1.2490 Minor 1.2325 Minor
1.2458 (76.4% of 1.2537/1.2204) 1.2300 Minor
1.2434 6 Feb high 1.2283 Session low
1.2408 (61.8% of 1.2537/1.2204) 1.2235 12 Feb low
1.2370 (50% of 1.2537/1.2204)/Session high 1.2205 9 Feb low

Economic data highlights will include:

German CPI/HICP, German/EU GDP, Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, CPI, Business Inventories, EIA weekly crude oil stock change



USDJPY: 107.82
US$Jpy had a bad day on Tuesday, breaking below the trendline stretching back to 2012 and falling to a low of 107.40 ahead of a bounce, in line with slightly firmer US stocks, although that correlation seems to have largely broken down over the last couple of days. The dollar weakness seems to be all about cutting risk positions ahead of today’s US CPI figure, and if we see a miss, (exp 0.3% mm, 2.1% yy, Ex Food/Energy; 1.8%yy) expect the dollar to head a fair bit lower.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  US$Jpy did manage to bottom out ahead of the 2017 low at 107.32, ahead of the minor bounce, and this remains the major level of support to watch. A downside break though, would then see little support until the 200 MMA at 105.70, so it could be a fairly rough for the dollar if the CPI underperforms.On the topside, back above 108.00 is needed to calm the nerves, beyond which there are only minor levels of resistance ahead of the session high of 108.77 and the 108.88 Monday high.

Sidelined. Sell rallies?

Resistance Support
108.77 Session high 107.40 Session low
108.50 Minor 107.31 8 Nov low
108.25 Minor 107.00 Minor
108.00 Minor 106.70 Minor
107.85 Minor 106.50 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:                                                             

Q4 GDP



GBPUSD: 1.3893
Cable rose to 1.3924 after the higher than expected UK CPI data but then gave back most of the gains as demand for Euro through the cross put some downside pressure on Sterling, for it to finish at 1.3875.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher Daily Indicators: Down. Weekly Indicators:  Up –Possible topping formation.
Preferred Strategy:    Today’s high, 1.3924, was the peak for Cable since last Friday’s three-week low of 1.3764 and as we said previously, the pair remains very choppy. With the short term momentum indicators looking mixed, it seems set to remain volatile, with plenty of Brexit speakers still due this week, but the daily momentum indicators still hint that the general direction will be lower, so trading from the short side is still preferred. Much will depend on the EU/US data today though.With the dailies still looking heavy, I suspect another run towards 1.3800 and then 1.3765 could be on the cards at some stage, below which would open the way to 1.3690/00.

On the topside, the initial Fibo resistance will be seen at the session high ahead of a possible run back towards 1.4000.

Neutral.

Resistance Support
1.3986 9 Feb high 1.3850 Minor
1.3940 Minor 1.3832 Session low
1.3923 Minor 1.3795 12 Feb low
1.3900 Minor 1.3764 9 Feb low
1.3780 Minor 1.3735 Minor


USDCHF: 0.9348
US$Chf has traded a range of 0.9321/0.9397 today, with the Chf seeing some demand on safe-haven grounds but overall, leaving the outlook unchanged.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral. Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:   Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators are once again neutral, suggesting more range trading ahead but the daily charts are turning higher, so looking to buy dips towards 0.9290/0.9320 seems to be the plan, hoping for a continuation of the squeeze higher, eventually back to the session high, near 0.9400 and eventually towards 0.9470 and possibly on to 0.9500. All will depend on the CPIOn the downside, support will be seen at 0.9320 ahead of 0.9290/0.9300. below 0.920 opens up the Feb low of 0.9250
Resistance Support
0.9469 8 Feb  high 0.9321 Session low
0.9450 Minor 0.9300 Minor
0.9425 Minor 0.9280 Minor
0.9403/08 12 Feb high/9 Feb high 0.9250 2 Feb low
0.9397 Session high 0.8220 Minor


AUDUSD: 0.7860
 AudUsd has had a rangebound session (0.7825/75) leaving the outlook unchanged but with the WBC Consumer Confidence coming up.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Down Weekly Indicators:  Neutral – Turning higher?
Preferred Strategy:   The technical picture for the Aud is mixed again on Wednesday and a cautious stance is required. While the dailies still point lower, the 4 hour charts hint that the current bounce could continue, and above the session high could see an extension towards 0.7900/10 and possibly back to 0.7950, albeit not today.. The dailies still look heavy though and the downside will again see bids at 0.7825 ahead of 0.7800/10. Below there, bids would gather at 0.7780 and at 0.7755/60 although I don’t see the Aud back below 0.7800 today.Sell AudUsd @ 0.7900. SL @ 0.7930, TP @ 0.7830.
Resistance Support
0.7945 (50% of 0.8135/0.7758) 0.7825/27 200 WMA /Session low
0.7925 Minor 0.7809 12 Feb low
0.7908 7 Feb  high 0.7780 100 DMA
0.7900 (38.2% of 0.8135/0.7758) 0.7762/58 (38.2% of 0.7160/0.8135)/9 Feb low
0.7875 Session high /200 HMA 0.7752 200 DMA

Economic data highlights will include:

WBC Consumer Confidence



NZDUSD: 0.7276
The Kiwi  rose to a six-day high of 0.7315 during the European morning but then gave back mall its gains and finished the day at 0.7275
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Mixed. –Turning higher Daily Indicators:  Down Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher?
Preferred Strategy:   The Kiwi did pretty much as expected in rallying above 0.7300 before falling back below, to finish at 0.7275. With the short term momentum indicators looking mixed we could be in for another choppy session ahead although note that there is a relatively large Nzd option expiry today at 0.7300 ($250 mio) which may act as a magnate through much of the session.As before, the dailies remain heavy, and using any strength to sell into is still the plan, looking for an eventual move back to 0.7200 and to the recent low of 7176, below which opens 0.7145.

Selling near-term rallies above 0.7300 may be the plan, with a SL placed above 0.7330 but possibly wait till the US CPI to ascertain any ongoing US$ strength/weakness.

Resistance Support
0.7345 7 Feb  high 0.7246 Session low
0.7330 Minor 0.7231 12 Feb low
0.7314 Session high 0.7197 9 Feb low
0.7300 Minor 0.7187 (38.2% of 0.6780/0.7364)
0.7280 200 HMA 0.7176 8 Feb  low

By | February 14, 2018
Source: FXCharts

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