14 June: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors: FXCharts

 

EURUSD: 1.1208

EurUsd has had a tight 1.1184/1.1224 range.

The rangebound trade is likely to continue ahead of the Fed decision but the dailies are pointing lower and do suggest that the Euro is going to remain under pressure.

On the topside, above Monday’s 1.1230 high, the major resistance remains at last week’s high of 1.1285, above which, 1.1300 and the top of the channel, now at 1.1310 will see good selling interest although that currently looks unlikely to be bothered today. If wrong, a break of the topside could elicit a quick move higher, to where the points to watch are at 1.1365 (18 Aug high), 1.1427 (24 June high) and then at 1.1450 (major descending trend resistance).

The short term momentum indicators are neutral and it looks set to remain choppy until the FOMC meeting, but back under 1.1185 would then allow for another test of 1.1160 and potentially of 1.1100/10. Further out, 1.1075 and 1.1040 are likely targets albeit that they are still some way off.

While the dailies remain toppish, selling rallies towards 1.1230/50 remains the plan, but with a tight SL placed above 1.1285, as we are then likely to see a run towards 1.1300/10 where I would again be looking to sell it with a tight SL above 1.1330.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
                                          Resistance Support
1.1326 8 Sept high 1.1184 Session low
1.1310 Channel Top 1.1163 31 May low
1.1300 9 Nov high 1.1150 (76.4% of 1.1108/1.1284)
1.1284 2 June high/7 June high 1.1108 30 May low
1.1231 12 June high/200 HMA 1.1075 18 May low

Economic data highlights will include:

German CPI, EU Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, CPI, FOMC Meeting/IR Decision/Press Conference/Statement


USDJPY: 110.03

US$Jpy has had a rangebound session (109.82/110.26) leaving the outlook unchanged

Below Monday’s low of 109.62 the first real support lies at 109.10, but below which there is not a lot to stop the dollar heading towards 108.85. Below there we could easily revisit the early April low, just above 108.00 although the short term momentum indicators are pointing a little higher today and the dollar looks relatively underpinned.

110.00 looks likely to act as a magnate ahead of the FOMC decision but above the 110.26 session high, good resistance lies at 110.40/50, and further out 110.70 and 111.00/10 will be hurdles although this seems unlikely to be seen today unless the Fed turn out to be quite hawkish in their view, in which case we may see a run towards 111.70/112.00.

With the dailies seemingly picking up some downside momentum, selling rallies is preferred although a rate hike/hawkish Fed could quickly see the dollar turn higher.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
                                         Resistance Support
111.11 (38.2% of 114.36/109.10) 109.62 12 June low
111.00 Minor 109.10 6 June low
110.72 5 June high 108.87 21 April low
110.43/47 12 June high/Daily Tenkan/ 200 DMA 108.32 18 April low
110.26 Session high 108.12 17 Apr low

Economic data highlights will include:

Industrial Production


GBPUSD: 1.2752

Sterling bounced strongly on Tuesday after the CPI unexpectedly rose to 2.9% yy in May, above expectations of 2.8%, a 4 year high. This comes ahead of Thursday’s BoE meeting which is widely expected to keep monetary policies unchanged and should be supportive of the Pound.

The inflation data underpinned Sterling and enabled a rally to finish at the highs of 1.2755. The short term momentum indicators look positive and the next resistance will be seen at the 12 June high of 1.2768, beyond which would allow a run back towards 1.2800, 1.2840 and then on towards 1.2900.

As we said yesterday, the market is overwhelmingly bearish on Sterling and the dailies still seem to be hinting in that direction, in which case the initial support is at 1.2700 and then at the lows at around 1.2640, just ahead of Friday’s low of 1.2636. Below 1.2620/30 further support would arrive at 1.2600 and then at 1.2575 and 1.2514, which was the low seen on the announcement of the election. Below that would head towards 1.2465/70 although that remains some way off.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term:  Neutral
                                         Resistance           Support
1.2890 (61.8% of 1.3047/1.2636) 1.2700 Minor
1.2840 (50% pivot of 1.3047/1.2636) 1.2750 Minor
1.2790 (38.2% of 1.3047/1.2636) 1.2636/38 9 June low/12 June low
1.2768 12 June high 1.2622 100 DMA
1.2756 Session high 1.2576 200 DMA/(50% pivot of 1.2108/ 1.3047)

Economic data highlights will include:

UK Unemployment/Claimant Count .



USDCHF: 0.9681

US$Chf has had a rangebound session (0.9661/0.9700) leaving the outlook unchanged.

On the topside sellers will again be seen at 0.9700 ahead of the Fibo level at 0.9727, beyond which will allow a run towards  0.9765 and then to 0.9800/05.

On the downside, below Tuesday’s low, the 100 MMA will provide good support ahead of the FOMC meeting but below which would see a move towards 0.9615. Under 0.9600 there is  little to hold the dollar up until the November spike low at 0.9550, roughly where the 200 WMA also lies although this seem unlikely. With the daily momentum indicators leaning higher, I prefer to trade from the long side but don’t expect a lot until the Fed outcome.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
                                         Resistance Support
0.9807 30 May high 0.9661 Session low / 200 HMA
0.9765 Minor 0.9640 100 MMA
0.9727 (23.6% of 1.0099/0.9613)/9 June high 0.9613/16 6 June low /9 June low
0.9715 Minor 0.9575 Minor
0.9700 Session high 0.9549/40 9 Nov low/200 WMA



AUDUSD: 0.7535

The Aud squeezed higher on Tuesday, to match the 7 June high at 0.7565, but failed to make further progress and drifted back to a low of 0.7522 before settling the day at 0.7540, pretty much unchanged from where it started the day.

As with the previous outlook, the 4 hour charts continue to correct lower, which may limit the upside momentum ahead of the FOMC  although the dailies still look mildly bullish, which should also limit the downside. Immediate resistance lies at the 100 DMA at 0.755. If we can make further progress, above the session high/7 June high (minor double top) of 0.7565 we could then head on to 0.7585 and then towards 0.7600/0.7610 although I am doubtful that we get here today.

On the downside, the initial bids will arrive at the session low/200 DMA, at 0.7521/25. This area looks fairly well underpinned right now but a downside break would trigger some short term stops and may produce a trip back towards 0.7490/0.7500, below which could revisit 0.7465/70 and even 0.7445/50. The WBC Consumer Confidence and China Retail Sales will be the immediate focus ahead of the Fed decision, later in the day.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
                                         Resistance                                         Support
0.7611 17 Apr high 0.7525/21/23 200 DMA /12 June low /Session low
0.7588 (61.8% of 0.7750/0.7328) 0.7500 Minor
0.7565 7 June high/Session high 0.7490 (38.2% of 0.7372/0.7565)
0.7555 100 DMA 0.7468 (50% of 0.7372/0.7565)
0.7545 Minor 0.7445 (61.8% of 0.7372/0.7565)

Economic data highlights will include:

WBC Consumer Confidence, China Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Urban Investment (May)


NZDUSD: 0.7219

The Kiwi has been up to 0.7227, where it has run into strong resistance (61.8% of 0.7485/0.6817), and sits just below there as we now await the NZ Q1 current account although the impact may be limited as  traders await the Fed, later in the day.

The short term momentum indicators are mixed/flat, so further consolidation could be in store, although the dailies remain positive but are approaching overbought conditions and may be close to rolling over. This has yet to happen, and further gains could take the Kiwi beyond the immediate Fibo level and on towards 0.7245/50 and possibly on towards the descending trend resistance at 0.7280. Above here would see 0.7300, beyond which there is little to stop it heading on towards 0.7370. It is too early for that scenario but as we said before, note that the Kiwi finished May by making a key-monthly bullish reversal, which possibly does hint at further gains through 2017.

On the downside the initial support lies at 0.7190 (session low) and then at 0.7165/70 and then at 0.7125 (6 June low) and at 0.7110/15. Below 0.7090 would allow a return to minor 0.7050/60 and, further out, support levels would be seen at the 30 May low of 0.7035 and at 0.7000 a break of which could take us back to the 24 May low of 0.6988.

While looking bid in the short term, I would once again be tempted to look to sell into strength at around 0.7225/30, with a tight SL placed above 0.7250. A break and daily close below 0.7165 would suggest a near term top is in place and could prompt an acceleration to the downside.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
                                         Resistance Support
0.7300 Minor 0.7190 Session low
0.7280 Descending trend resistance 0.7168 12 June low
0.7265 Minor 0.7150 Minor
0.7247 23 Feb high 0.7125 5 June low /(23.6% of 0.6817/0.7222)
0.7230/27 (61.8% of 0.7485/0.6817) /Session high 0.7090 200 HMA

Economic data highlights will include:

Food Price Index, Current Account.


By | June 14, 2017
Source: FXCharts

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