16 June: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors: FXCharts

EURUSD: 1.1146

EurUsd has been under pressure as the dollar continues its recovery following the FOMC decision, assisted by today’s firm US data, with the pair finishing the session just above the Thursday lows of 1.1131.

With the 4 hour/daily momentum indicators looking heavy further losses look likely, which could see a decline to 1.1100/10 and possibly to 1.1075 and 1.1015.

On the topside, minor resistance will be seen at 1.1165 and 1.1200 although I don’t think we are heading back up here today. If wrong, look for a move back to the Thursday high of 1.1228.

While the dailies point lower, selling rallies towards 1.1200, with a SL placed above 1.1230 seems to be the plan.

The EU May inflation figure and the US May housing starts and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are data risks for Friday

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
                                          Resistance Support
1.1295 14 June high 1.1131 Session low
1.1250 Minor 1.1108 30 May low
1.1223/28 200 HMA /Session high 1.1075 18 May low
1.1200 Minor 1.1067 (23.6% of 1.0340/1.1295)
1.1165 Minor 1.1015 (38.2% of 1.0570/1.1295)

Economic data highlights will include:

EU CPI, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Labor Market Conditions Index, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

USDJPY: 110.91

US$Jpy lead the lead the dollar higher on Thursday after  some solid data reinforced the FOMC’s sanguine message of the previous session, reaching a peak of 110.97 and closing nearby. We now await the BOJ meeting although no change to policy is expected.

The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators look as though we could see further gains, and once above 111.00 there is not too much to stop it heading towards 111.50 then to 111.70, beyond which could head towards 112.00/20.

The downside will find bids at 110.50 and again at 110.30, and for the time being buying dips, with a SL placed under 110.00 seems to be the plan.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
                                         Resistance Support
112.12 24 May high 110.50 Minor
111.70 2 June high 110.30 Minor
111.57 (50% pivot of 114.36/108.80) 109.95 200 HMA
111.25 Minor 109.45 Minor
110.97 Session high /(38.2% of 114.36/108.80) 109.25 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

BOJ Interest Rate Decision/ Press Conference/Statement

GBPUSD: 1.2754

Cable fell to 1.2691 after the UK May retail sales data missed expectations but then turned sharply higher when the BOE surprised the market, with 3 members of the MPC voting to raise rates. The vote count did go 5-3 against a rate hike but the move did briefly take Cable up to 1.2794, allowing Sterling perform well on the day as a rate hike looms, while the other majors came under pressure from the stronger dollar.

The outlook remains much the same as before, with the topside likely to see sellers heading into the 1.2800/17 area, which has capped it this week, but above which could then head on to 1.2840 and then eventually on towards 1.2900.

The initial support is at 1.2690/1.2700. Below there could see a run back to the recent lows at around 1.2636/40 although the momentum indicators are generally neutral and a choppy session, close to current levels, would not surprise. Further out, below the 100 DMA, further support would arrive at 1.2600 and then at 1.2575 and 1.2514, which was the low seen on the announcement of the election in April. Below that would head towards 1.2465/70 although that remains some way off.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term:  Neutral
                                         Resistance           Support
1.2890 (61.8% of 1.3047/1.2636) 1.2725 100 HMA
1.2840 (50% pivot of 1.3047/1.2636) 1.2689 Session low
1.2825 200 HMA 1.2636/38 9 June low/12 June low
1.2817 14 June high 1.2622 100 DMA
1.2790/94 (38.2% of 1.3047/1.2636)/Session high /200 HMA 1.2576 200 DMA/(50% pivot of 1.2108/ 1.3047)

Economic data highlights will include:

UK Quarterly Bulletin

USDCHF: 0.9752

US$Chf seems to be building its upside momentum, and buying dips would seem to be the plan for Friday. The Swiss National Bank left interest rates on hold and said the local currency was still significantly overvalued, which possibly added to the dollar’s bid tone as some long Chf positions headed for the exit gate.

Above the Thursday high of 0.9770 would allow a run towards 0.9785 and to 0.9800/05. Beyond there opens the way to 0.9825 and possibly higher, towards 0.9850 and eventually to 0.9915

On the downside, support will arrive at the session low at around 0.9700, which now looks to be a decent buy area if we get there. Below 0.9700 would see a move back to 0.9675 and then towards the 100 MMA/14 June low which would provide strong support although it is looking increasingly distant.

With the daily momentum indicators leaning higher, I still prefer to trade from the long side, looking to buy dips towards the 0.9720 with a SL placed under 0.9700. A move above 0.9807 would add to the bullish theory.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
                                         Resistance Support
0.9846 17 May high 0.9725 Minor
0.9825 18 May high 0.9703 Session low
0.9807 30 May high 0.9675 200 HMA
0.9785 Minor 0.9640 100 MMA/14 June low
0.9770 Session high 0.9613/16 6 June low /9 June low

AUDUSD: 0.7581

Having headed up to a high of 0.7631 following yesterday’s strong jobs data the Aud is now lower, under pressure from the strong US$, finishing just above the session lows of 0.7576.

The momentum indicators are now mixed and we could be in for further choppy trade ahead, and that being the case, 0.7600 will again see sellers ahead of the trend high of 0.7635. Beyond here would find offers at 0.7645/50 although I doubt we head above here today, but further gains could potentially test the descending trend resistance seen at 0.7695.

On the downside, the initial bids will arrive at minor levels at 0.7575 and at 0.7550 ahead of the 13 June low/200 DMA at 0.7521/25. This area looks fairly well underpinned right now but a downside break would trigger some short term stops and may produce a trip back towards 0.7490/0.7500, below which could revisit 0.7465/70 and even 0.7445/50.

As with yesterday, looking to sell into strength above 0.7600, with a SL placed above 0.7650 may be a plan.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
                                         Resistance                                         Support
0.7695 Descending trend resistance 0.7567 Session low
0.7675 30 Mar high 0.7550 Minor
0.7645 (61.8% of 0.7750/0.7329) 0.7533 (38.2% of 0.7370/0.7635)
0.7635/31 14 June high/Session high 0.7525/21/23 200 DMA /12 June low /13 June low
0.7610 Minor 0.7502 (50% of 0.7370/0.7635)

NZDUSD: 0.7206

The Kiwi is sharply lower from the 0.7318 high, currently sitting just above 0.7200 after having bounced off a session low of 0.7185.

The dailies now look as though they are rolling over and selling into strength, trading from the short side is preferred. Levels to look for, in order to get short, are at 0.7230 and then again 0.7265 and 0.7280. If wrong on this view, once back above 0.7300/20 there is little to stop the Kiwi heading on towards 0.7370, beyond which the points to watch would be at 0.7400 and 0.7485.

On the downside, back below 0.7200 would revisit the session low of 0.7185, a break of which would open the way to 0.7165/70 and then to 0.7125 (6 June low) and 0.7110/15. Below 0.7090 would allow a return to minor 0.7050/60 and, further out, support levels would be seen at the 30 May low of 0.7035 and at 0.7000 a break of which could take us back to the 24 May low of 0.6988.

Looking to sell near 0.7230 with a SL placed above 0.7280 may be a short term plan.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
                                         Resistance Support
0.7319 14 June high 0.7200 Pivot
0.7300 Minor 0.7184 Session low
0.7280 Minor 0.7170 Minor
0.7265 Minor 0.7150 Minor
0.7230 Minor 0.7127 (38.2% of 0.6817/0.7319)

Economic data highlights will include:

Business PMI

By | June 16, 2017
Source: FXCharts

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