18 Jan: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas: FXCharts

EURUSD: 1.2212
EurUsd  has chopped sideways since taking out stops in Asia yesterday, confined pretty much to a 1.2200/80 range through the Europe/US sessions but closing near the lows as US bond yields climber higher, putting a bid tone under the dollar.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher
Preferred Strategy:  A neutral stance seems wise right now although the longer term charts do still point to higher levels ahead. Good offers will arrive in the 1.2280/1.2320 area while a break below 1.2195 would open the way towards 1.2140. ECB/Buba speeches and the US Housing data will largely provide the direction today along with any directional move in bond markets.
Resistance Support
1.2335 Minor 1.2210 Minor
1.2322 Session high 1.2195 Session low
1.2300 Minor 1.2140 23.6% of 1.1553/1.2219
1.2275 H/S Neckline 1.2120 Minor
1.2250 Minor 1.2100 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:                                      

T: Buba Weidmann Speech, EC’s Coeure Speech, US Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Jobless Claims, EIA weekly crude oil stock change

USDJPY: 111.14
After chopping around between 110.20/90 for much of the day, US$Jpy has seen a late squeeze higher, to 111.20 on the back of strengthening US yields, closing at session highs.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The late move higher means that $/Jpy has made a bullish key day reversal. The momentum indicators are note really suggestive of any major directional move but it may now be worth sticking a bid in at around 110.50/70, with a SL placed below the trend low at 110.19 or better, below 110.00. Buy US$Jpy @ 110.70. SL @ 110.15, TP @ 111.70
Resistance Support
112.20 100 DMA 110.80 Minor
112.00 Minor 110.50 Minor
111.70 200 HMA /200 DMA 110.19 Session low
111.50 Minor 110.05 Rising trend support
111.23 Session high 109.90 100 WMA

Economic data highlights will include:

T:  Japan Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation (Nov)

GBPUSD: 1.3854
Sterling headed up to a post Brexit high of 1.3942 on hopes/speculation of a 2nd Brexit referendum, but also assisted by the BoE’s Saunders less dovish rate outlook and less dour look at the UK economy. A late US$ rally has seen some of those gains evaporate, with Cable now at 1.3870.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  The momentum indicators generally look positive but Cable remains very headline driven so caution is warranted. Buying dips seems to be the theme though, with a SL placed back below 1.3800Buy GbpUsd @ 1.3820. SL @ 1.3780, TP @ 1.3990
Resistance Support
1.4100 Minor 1.3870 Minor
1.4050 Minor 1.3850 Minor
1.4000 Psychological 1.3825 Minor
1.3975 Minor 1.3785 Minor
1.3942 Session high 1.3756 Session low

USDCHF: 0.9628
US$Chf traded a choppy 0.9572/0.9650 range on Wednesday and with the momentum indicators mixed a cautious stance is required.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral – Turning higher? Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The daily charts still look heavy but the 4 hour momentum indicators hint at a retest of the 0.9650/60 area, above which could see a return towards 0.9700/20. If seen, it may be a decent sell but In the meantime look to buy dips with a tight SL.Buy US$Chf @ 0.9585. SL @ 0.9560, TP @ 0.9660
Resistance Support
0.9735 Minor 0.9572 Session low
0.9700 Minor 0.9550 100 MMA /Rising trend support
0.9680 23.6% of 1.0004 /0.9572 0.9515 Minor
0.9665 Minor 0.9500 Minor
0.9650 Session high 0.9485 Minor

AUDUSD: 0.7992
 AudUsd is trading at 0.8000 after running up to 0.8022 after the BOC raised Canadian rates and with a very busy day of data ahead today we might expect some decent volatility. The main focus will be on the Australian December Unemployment (exp 5.4%, +9K, PR: 65.4%) and the China Q4 GDP (exp 1.6% qq, 6.7%yy).
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The longer term uptrend remains firmly intact so buying dips is probably still the plan although the short term momentum indicators are showing some bearish divergence so a cautious stance is warranted. Stand aside and go with the flow after the data.
Resistance Support
0.8102 20 Sept high 0.8000 Psychological
0.8080 Minor 0.7970 Minor
0.8055 200 MMA 0.7940 Session low
0.8036 21 Sept High 0.7925 Minor
0.8022 Session high 0.7900 23.6% of 0.7510/0.7998 / Rising trend support

Economic data highlights will include:

T: Australian Unemployment, New Home Sales, China House Price Index, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Q4 GDP, NBS Press Conference

NZDUSD: 0.7290
The Kiwi made a new trend high at 0.7330 after  clearing Asia’s high and running stops above 0.7300 late in the day before a reverse in early NZ trade, to currently sit at 0.7290
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher
Preferred Strategy:  While the medium term charts look constructive for further gains, the short term momentum indicators are turning lower and show a degree of bearish divergence suggesting a test of the downside. The Australian/China data may provide some directional movement today. Stay neutral for now.
Resistance Support
0.7400 Minor 0.7285 Minor
0.7375 (76.4% of 0.7557/0.6780) 0.7260 Minor
0.7360 Minor 0.7230 Minor
0.7343 22 Sept high 0.7215 Minor
0.7330 Session high 0.7200 (23.6% of 6780/0.7330)
January 18, 2018
Source: FXCharts

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *