20 June: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors: FXCharts

EURUSD: 1.1148

EurUsd has traded heavily on Monday, following the Fed’s Dudley making some upbeat comments on the US economy, and the pair is finishing near the day’s lows of 1.1142.

With the momentum indicators now all looking heavy, further losses look likely to test last week’s lows at just above 1.1130 beyond which would allow a move to 1.1100/10 and possibly to 1.1075 and 1.1015 although possibly not yet. Sellers will arrive at 1.1170 and the session high of 1.1212.

As before, while the dailies point lower, selling rallies towards 1.1200, with a SL placed above 1.1230 seems to be the plan for Tuesday.

24 Hour: Mildly Bearish – Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
                                          Resistance Support
1.1295/1.1300 14 June high /9 Nov high 1.1142 Session low
1.1255 (76.4% pivot of 1.1295/1.1131) 1.1138/31 16 June low /15 June low
1.1232 (61.8% pivot of 1.1295/1.1131) 1.1108 30 May low
1.1212 Session high 1.1075 18 May low
1.1170 Minor 1.1067 (23.6% of 1.0340/1.1295)

Economic data highlights will include:

EU Current Account (May), German PPI, US Current Account (Q1), Fed Monetary Policy Report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory, Fed’s Kaplan/Fischer Speeches


USDJPY: 111.55

US$Jpy has ended near session highs of 111.59 following Dudley’s upbeat comments and appears to have the momentum to make further gains in the coming hours.

The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators are now aligned to look positive, and above the Fibo resistance which coincides with the 111.59 high would open the way to 111.70 and to 111.82/90, which should be decent resistance, but beyond which could head towards 112.15/20.

The downside will find bids at around 111.00, below which could see a return to 110.65/75 although this seems unlikely today, but a break of which would then head towards 110.30 and possibly back to 110.00.

As before, with the dollar, having turned higher to now make 4 consecutive higher lows, it would seem to be building for further gains and as long as we do not make a daily close under 110.64, I prefer to trade it from the long side, looking to buy dips towards 111.00 today. If that fails to occur, then resume a neutral stance.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
                                         Resistance Support
112.22 (61.8% of 114.36/108.80) 111.20 Minor
112.12 24 May high/Daily cloud top 110.90 (23.6% of 108.80/111.59)
111.90/82 100 DMA /Daily cloud base 110.72 Session low /200 DMA
111.70 2 June high 110.64 16 June low
111.57/59 (50% pivot of 114.36/108.80) /Session high 110.05 200 HMA /Weekly Tenkan

Economic data highlights will include:

All Industry Activity Index


GBPUSD: 1.2737

Sterling is lower today but remains within the recent 1.2700/1.2820 (today; 1.2722/1.2813) range while keeping an eye on the Brexit talks. BOE Governor, Mark Carney will also be speaking today and may cause some volatility.

Technically, the outlook remains much the same as before, with the topside likely to see sellers heading into the 1.2800/17 area, which capped it last week, but above which could then head on to 1.2840 and then eventually on towards 1.2900.

Below the session low, the initial support is at 1.2690/1.2700. Below there could see a run back to the recent lows at around 1.2636/40 although the momentum indicators are generally neutral and a choppy session, close to current levels, would not surprise. Further out, below the 100 DMA, further support would arrive at 1.2600 and then at 1.2575 and 1.2514, which was the low seen on the announcement of the election in April. Below that would head towards 1.2465/70 although that remains some way off.

Neutral.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term:  Neutral
                                         Resistance           Support
1.2890 (61.8% of 1.3047/1.2636) 1.2722 Session low
1.2840 (50% pivot of 1.3047/1.2636) /Daily Kijun 1.2700 Minor
1.2817 14 June high 1.2689 15 June low
1.2813 Session high 1.2636/38 9 June low/12 June low
1.2775 200 HMA 1.2622 100 DMA

Economic data highlights will include:

BOE Governor, Mark Carney Speech, Brexit talks


USDCHF: 0.9754

US$Chf traded a little higher on Monday and after an early dip to 0.9695 it headed up to finish at the highs of 0.9755, leaving the mildly bullish outlook unchanged.

If we do see further gains, above last Thursday’s high of 0.9770 would allow a run towards 0.9785 and to 0.9800/05. Beyond there opens the way to 0.9825 and possibly higher, towards 0.9850 and eventually to 0.9915

On the downside, minor support will arrive at 0.9720 and again at the session low of 0.9695 although this looks a little doubtful to be seen again on Tuesday. Below their though would see a move back to 0.9675 and then towards the 100 MMA/14 June low which would provide strong support although it is looking increasingly distant.

With the daily momentum indicators leaning higher, I still prefer to trade from the long side, looking to buy dips towards the 0.9700 with a SL placed under 0.9675. A move above 0.9807 would add to the bullish theory.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
                                         Resistance Support
0.9846 17 May high 0.9720 Minor
0.9825 18 May high 0.9695 Session low
0.9807 30 May high 0.9675 200 HMA
0.9770 15 June high 0.9640 100 MMA/14 June low
0.9758 Session high 0.9613/16 6 June low /9 June low

Economic data highlights will include:

SECO Economic Forecasts


AUDUSD: 0.7597

AudUsd has drifted lower on the back of Dudley’s comments and currently sits at 0.7600 after having found support at 0.7585.

While the daily momentum indicators are pointing higher, the short term momentum indicators look a little heavy and for the current session we could see a retest of the 9.7585 area, below which would then open up last Friday’s low of 0.7575 and the 100 DMA at 0.7560, which should be good support if we get there.  Below there could see a run to 0.7525/35 although I am doubtful that we see it down here today.

On the topside, resistance will be seen at the trend highs at around 0.7630/35; beyond which would find offers at 0.7645/50, and further gains could potentially test the descending trend resistance levels seen at 0.7695 and eventually at 0.7725.

The House Price Index and the RBA Minutes will provide the momentum today. The outlook is mixed and a cautious stance is required.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
                                         Resistance                                         Support
0.7695 Minor descending trend resistance 0.7584 Session low
0.7675 30 Mar high 0.7575 16 June low /(23.6% of 0.7370/0.7635)
0.7645 (61.8% of 0.7750/0.7329) 0.7560 100 DMA
0.7635/31 14 June high/15 June high 0.7533 (38.2% of 0.7370/0.7635)
0.7628 Session high 0.7525/21/23 200 DMA /12 June low /13 June low

Economic data highlights will include:

House Price Index (Q1), RBA Minutes


NZDUSD: 0.7229

The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators are mixed on Tuesday and a cautious stance is now warranted.

On the topside, minor resistance will be seen at 0.7250 and 0.7280 ahead of the 0.7298 Monday high although I don’t think we are going close to this today. If wrong, and we head back above 0.7300/20 there is little to stop the Kiwi heading on towards 0.7370, beyond which the points to watch would be at 0.7400 and 0.7485.

On the downside, back below 0.7200 would revisit the 15 June low of 0.7185, a break of which would open the way to 0.7165/70 and then to 0.7125 (6 June low) and 0.7110/15. Below 0.7090 would allow a return to minor 0.7050/60 and, further out, support levels would be seen at the 30 May low of 0.7035 and at 0.7000 a break of which could take us back to the 24 May low of 0.6988.

While the daily momentum indicators do seem mildly positive they may be on the point of rolling over so I remain cautious, and ahead of the RBNZ decision on Thursday, where policy is expected to remain on hold, I would retain a neutral stance. Global Dairy Trade Index on tonight.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
                                         Resistance Support
0.7319 14 June high 0.7225 Session low /200 HMA
0.7298 Session high 0.7200 16 June low
0.7285 Minor 0.7185 15 June low
0.7275 Minor 0.7150 Minor
0.7250 Minor 0.7127 (38.2% of 0.6817/0.7319)

Economic data highlights will include:

Global Dairy Trade Index

By | June 20, 2017
Source: FXCharts

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