21 Nov: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas: FX Charts

The short term momentum indicators still look a little heavy and we might see another test of the 1.1721 low, below which could allow a decline towards 1.1700, below which 1.1670/80 would attract. This was the previous H/S neckline and is also the 61.8% Fibo level (1.1670) of the recent rally from 1.1553, and should see decent bids but below which opens the way to 1.1650 and eventually to 1.1625. Having closed back below the 100 DMA (1.1745), I suspect the downside will eventually come good, and today, selling at this level may be a plan.

On the other hand, the daily MACDs still suggest that further gains are possible in the days ahead, and back above the session high of 1.1807 would open up 1.1820/30, which would find good sellers ahead of 1.1855/60 and again at 1.1880/85, beyond which would allow a run towards 1.1900+.

Preferred Strategy:  For Tuesday, I prefer to adopt a fairly neutral stance in the absence of any major data but with one eye on headlines from Germany. Out of choice I would look to sell into strength above 1.1745, perhaps towards 1.1780, with a SL placed above 1.1830.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1770. SL @ 1.1830, TP @ 1.1740.

The daily momentum indicators are still pointing lower though and we could see another run to levels below 112.00, although decent support lies in the 111.50/70 area where it might be worth trying buy some dollars if we ever see it down there..

Preferred Strategy:  Support today will arrive at 112.20/112.00 and I doubt that we go under here today, and overall I suspect we may be in for a couple of days of 112/113 range trading.

In the longer term I still prefer to look to buy the dollar but prefer to wait until we see 112.00/111.50.

Buy US$Jpy @ 112.15. SL @ 112.40, TP @ 113.50

On the topside, resistance will again be seen at 1.3260, above which 1.3275/1.3300 would find good offers although I doubt we see it much above here today.

On the downside, support will be now seen at 1.3185, 1.3150 and at 1.3135 ahead of the rising trend support low at 1.3100.

Preferred Strategy:  I remain neutral, possibly very cautiously bullish (Long GbpAud), and as long as we don’t see a daily close below 1.3165, which would negate the series of higher highs/lows, I will stick with the mildly bullish tone.

Further out, given the positive look of the weeklies, if we can eventually take out 1.0015/25 we could then head on to take another look at 1.0035/40, above which there is little to hold the dollar up ahead of 1.0100, and beyond that to 1.1025 and 1.0170.

On the downside, support will be seen today at 0.9900, below which could revert to the session low at 0.9878 although I don’t think we get there. If wrong look for a move back below 0.9875 to where further support would been at 0.9845 and 0.9800/10.

Preferred Strategy:  Buy US$Chf @ 0.9900. SL @ 0.9870, TP @ 1.0015