- Economics/ Politics/Central Banks:
- The US initial jobless claims rose 3k to 241k in the week ended June 17, slightly above expectation of 240k but remain at a very low level historically.
- Comments from outgoing BOE MPC member Kristin Forbes underpinned Sterling after she said “‘lift-off’ of UK interest rates should not be delayed any longer” in a speech to the London School of Business.
- Nomura analysts predict that the BOE will raise UK rates in August
- SNB’s Maechler said that the Swiss Franc is still highly overvalued
- Currencies:
- The US$ was little changed on Thursday as low US bond yields offset the weekly jobless claims figure and home prices, which came in at close to expectations, keeping it close to the one-month peak it reached earlier this week.
- The Yen saw some safe-haven demand due to early weakness in US and European stock markets, but later eased back as the dollar recovered into the US close, to finish on the 100 HMA.
- Sterling touched session highs against the US$ and Euro in late Thursday US trade after comments from BOE MPC member Kristin Forbes, who reiterated her previous hawkish outlook.
- The Aud$ remains heavy, while the Kiwi is underpinned by the mildly upbeat outlook from the RBNZ at yesterday’s monetary policy meeting.
| EURUSD: 1.1151 |
- Intraday (1 hour/4 hour) momentum indicators: Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Pointing Lower
- Upcoming market moving events: EU PMIs, US New Home Sales
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Mildly bearish | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: I prefer to sell rallies towards 1.1200 with a SL above 1.1230, looking for a move to 1.1110 and eventually to 1.1060/70. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1253 | (76.4% pivot of 1.1295/1.1118) | 1.1138 | Session low |
| 1.1228 | (61.8% pivot of 1.1295/1.1118) | 1.1108 | 30 May low |
| 1.1212/07 | 19 June high /Daily Tenkan | 1.1075 | 18 May low |
| 1.1185 | (38.2% of 1.1295/1.1118)/Daily Kijun | 1.1067 | (23.6% of 1.0340/1.1295) |
| 1.1177 | Session high | 1.1017 | (38.2% of 1.05701.1295) |
Economic data highlights will include:
EU/US Markit Flash Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs, US New Home Sales, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
…
| USDJPY: 111.28 |
- Intraday (1 hour/4 hour) momentum indicators: Mixed
- 4hour/daily momentum indicators: Trying to turn higher
- Upcoming market moving events: Nikkei Mfg PMI
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: More near term choppy trade looks likely but the dailies hint at an eventual run towards 112.00. Stops on longs below 110.60. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 112.22 | (61.8% of 114.36/108.80) | 110.94 | Session low |
| 112.12 | 24 May high/Daily cloud top | 110.90 | (23.6% of 108.80/111.59) |
| 111.90/82 | 100 DMA /Daily cloud base | 110.72 | 19 June low /200 DMA |
| 111.78 | 20 June high | 110.64 | 16 June low |
| 111.44 | Session high | 110.05 | 200 HMA /Weekly Tenkan |
Economic data highlights will include:
Nikkei Mfg PMI
…
| GBPUSD: 1.2680 |
- Intraday (1 hour/4 hour) momentum indicators: Possibly trying to turn higher
- Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
- Upcoming market moving events: Ongoing Brexit negotiations, BOE MPC Forbes Speech (again!)
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral. There are easier things to look at. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.2800 | Minor | 1.2653 | Session low |
| 1.2763 | (38.2% of 1.3047/1.2588) | 1.2622 | 100 DMA |
| 1.2725 | 200 HMA | 1.2582/88 | 21 June low/(50% pivot of 2197/1.3047) |
| 1.2709 | 21 June high | 1.2550 | 200 DMA |
| 1.2695/90 | (23.6% of 1.3047/1.2588)/Session high | 1.2515 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
BOE Forbes Speech
…
| USDCHF: 0.9716 |
- Intraday (1 hour/4 hour) momentum indicators: Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Attempting to point higher
- Upcoming market moving events: Nil
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Mildly bullish | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: I prefer to buy dips towards 0.9680 with a SL below 0.9640, looking for a move to 0.9770 and eventually to 0.9805/10. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9825 | 18 May high | 0.9711 | Session low |
| 0.9807 | 30 May high | 0.9695 | 19 June low |
| 0.9785 | Minor | 0.9675 | Minor |
| 0.9770 | 15 June high | 0.9640 | 14 June low |
| 0.9742 | Session high | 0.9613/16 | 6 June low /9 June low |
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7540 |
- Intraday (1 hour/4 hour) momentum indicators: Mildly heavy
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
- Upcoming market moving events: Nil
- Dalian Iron Ore fell by -0.35%, steel rebar -0.5%. Comex copper -0.2%
| 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The slow grind lower looks set to continue, so trading from the short side, looking to sell rallies, with a SL placed above 0.7470, but hoping for a move towards 0.7500, possibly 0.7470 seems to be the plan. It is going to be slow though. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7635/31 | 14 June high/15 June high | 0.7533/35 | (38.2% of 0.7370/0.7635) /Daily cloud top/Session low |
| 0.7623 | 20 June high | 0.7525/21/23 | 200 DMA /12 June low |
| 0.7600 | Pivot | 0.7502 | (50% of 0.7370/0.7635) |
| 0.7585 | 21 June high | 0.7471 | (61.8% of 0.7370/0.7635) |
| 0.7560 | 100 DMA | 0.7455 | 6 June low |
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7264 |
- Intraday (1 hour/4 hour) momentum indicators: Mixed, possibly slightly positive
- Daily momentum indicators: Overbought but yet to turn lower
- Upcoming market moving events: Nil
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Kiwi remains underpinned although with the Aud looking heavy the upside momentum may be limited today. Rangebound between 0.7220/0.7300 seems likely. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7381 | 9 Nov high | 0.7235 | Minor |
| 0.7350 | Minor | 0.7193 | Session low |
| 0.7319 | 14 June high | 0.7185 | 15 June low |
| 0.7298 | 19 June high | 0.7150 | Minor |
| 0.7273 | Session high | 0.7127 | (38.2% of 0.6817/0.7319) |
By June 23, 2017
Source: FXCharts