| EURUSD: 1.1852 |
| EurUsd is firm again today, after the solid EU PMI readings although the range has been tight because of the US holiday.The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators are still pointing higher, and further gains look possible so buying dips is currently favoured. Further out though, the weeklies do still point lower so I would expect conditions to be choppy but with a near term upside bias.
If so, above the near term resistance at 1.1855/60 would find good sellers at 1.1880/85, beyond which would then allow a run towards 1.1900+, with little resistance then to be seen until 1.2000. On the downside, minor support will today be seen at 1.1800/10 a break of which would allow a return to 1.1780/1.1800 ahead of stronger levels at 1.1735 although this looks unlikely to be seen heading into the weekend. Preferred Strategy: For Friday, I prefer to adopt a fairly neutral stance given the US long weekend holiday, although buying dips may be a plan. The German IFO will be the data risk today, while speeches from the ECB’s Constancio and Coeure. |
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| 24 Hour: Neutral –Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies | |||
| FX Charts Position: | Flat | |||
| Resistance | Support | |||
| 1.2004 | 22 Sept high | 1.1830 | Minor | |
| 1.1936 | Minor | 1.1812 | Session low | |
| 1.1900 | Minor | 1.1800 | Minor | |
| 1.1885 | (61.8% of 1.2091/1.1553) | 1.1770 | 200 HMA | |
| 1.1855/57/59 | Session high/20 Oct high/16 Nov high | 1.1735/31 | 100 DMA /22 Nov low | |
Economic data highlights will include:
German IFO Business Climate/Expectations, US Flash Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
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| USDJPY: 111.22 |
| US$Jpy had a very tight session 111.06/37 on Thursday, and in the absence of any real interest on Friday due to holiday thinned markets, it could be much the same todayThe 4 hour and daily momentum indicators still looking heavy, and a test of 111.00 – and lower – would not surprise although the hourlies are now pointing higher and it may be worth waiting to see if we can head back towards the important 111.70 level to sell into.
Preferred Strategy: It looks as though the market is still generally trapped in being short Jpy so there will be plenty of sellers into dollar rallies from those looking to cut positions. Selling rallies is preferred today although it could be another quiet one. |
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| 24 Hour: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies? | Medium Term: Neutral | |||
| FX Charts Position: | Flat | |||
| Resistance | Support | |||
| 112.05 | 200 WMA | 111.06 | Session low | |
| 111.95 | (23.6% of 114.73/111.06) | 111.00 | (50% pivot of 107.31/114.73) | |
| 111.70 | 100 DMA/200 DMA | 110.60 | Minor | |
| 111.50 | Minor | 110.30 | 100 WMA | |
| 111.37 | Session high | 110.15 | (61.8% of 107.31/114.73) | |
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| GBPUSD: 1.3307 |
| Cable edged back from its 5 week high on Thursday, with traders largely ignoring the cuts to Britain’s dismal economic growth forecasts announced in Thursday’s budget statement, with the focus again turning towards Brexit ahead of UK PM Theresa May’s visit to Brussels today. At the end of the day Cable has recovered from the session lows to sit back just above 1.3300.The daily momentum indicators still appear to be picking up some mildly positive impetus and further gains do seem possible, where a break of 1.3335/40 would allow a run to 1.3400+, possibly to where the major descending trend resistance from the 2014 high comes in at 1.3460.
On the downside, minor support will again be seen 1.3280/00 ahead of 1.3240 and buying dips would currently seem to be the plan. Preferred Strategy: Overall I remain neutral, albeit growing cautiously bullish. Any solid progress in today’s May/EU meeting could produce some major activity so watch closely. I suspect that Sterling is priced for bad news, so any progress would allow a decent jump higher. Buy GbpUsd @ 1.3250. SL @ 1.3090, TP @ 1.3400 |
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| 24 Hour: Neutral -Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Neutral | |||
| FX Charts Position: | Flat (Long GbpAud) | |||
| Resistance | Support | |||
| 1.3450 | Minor | 1.3283 | Session low | |
| 1.3415 | (61.8% of 1.3656/1.3073) | 1.3250 | Rising trend support | |
| 1.3380 | Minor | 1.3210/12 | 100 WMA /22 Nov low | |
| 1.3337/41 | 13 Oct high/(50% pivot of 1.3656/1.3073) | 1.3185 | 20 Nov low | |
| 1.3323 | 1.3165 | Minor | ||
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| USDCHF: 0.9814 |
| US$Chf traded lower again today, falling to 0.9794, ahead of a minor bounce, and is currently hugging close to the 200 WMA.With the daily momentum indicators pointing increasingly lower though, a sustained break of 0.9790/0.9800 would allow a run towards 0.9725/30.
On the topside, once back above the session high, some Fibo resistance would be seen at 0.9850 and at 0.9885 and selling into strength today would seem to be the plan, with a SL placed above 0.9915 although I suspect we are in for a fairly tight session. Preferred Strategy: Sell US$Chf @ 0.9880. SL @ 0.9915, TP @ 0.9780 |
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| 24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Neutral | |||
| FX Charts Position: | Flat | |||
| Resistance | Support | |||
| 0.9946 | 21 Nov high/ (61.8% of 1.0038/0.9794) | 0.9810/00 | 200 WMA /(38.2% of 0.9420/1.0037) | |
| 0.9910 | Minor | 0.9794 | Session low | |
| 0.9885 | (38.2% of 1.0038/0.9794) | 0.9775 | Minor | |
| 0.9850 | (23.6% of 1.0038/0.9794) | 0.9750 | Minor | |
| 0.9827 | Session high | 0.9727 | (50% of 0.9420/1.0037) | |
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| AUDUSD: 0.7625 |
| AudUsd remains firm on Friday although the Thursday range has been a tight 0.7603/38, and it could be a similar outcome today in the absence of any data and thin holiday markets.With the 4 hour/daily momentum indicators looking increasingly positive, a test of the H/S neckline formation at 0.7660 would not surprise, above which would find further sellers at the 13 Nov high of 0.7665. Beyond this would then allow a run towards 0.7675/80 and possibly 0.7695/0.7700.
The downside will again find minor support at 0.7590/0.7600 and then at 0.7565 and 0.7550 ahead of the stronger 0.7530/35, area, which will continue to be strong, but below which would target Fibo support at around 0.7515. A break of this would then look towards 0.7485 and 0.7460/70 (Rising trend support) albeit this is some way off. Preferred Strategy: In the absence of any data and due to a holiday-thinned market, a quiet day near current levels would not surprise. |
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| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | |||
| FX Charts Position: | Flat | |||
| Resistance | Support | |||
| 0.7729 | 2 Nov high | 0.7600 | Minor | |
| 0.7700 | 7 Nov high | 0.7585 | 200 HMA | |
| 0.7665 | 13 Nov high /(23.6% of 0.8102/0.7531) | 0.7565 | 100 HMA | |
| 0.7650 | Minor | 0.7550 | Minor | |
| 0.7638 | Session high | 0.7531 | 21 Nov low /100 WMA | |
By November 24, 2017