| EURUSD: 1.2294 |
| EurUsd finished the week with a fairly tight session without any real direction and we could be in for more of the same today, while waiting on the Fed’s Powell to testify to Congress Tue/Wed. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? – Possible topping formation. | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators look pretty neutral and require a nimble stance although the dailies do seem heavy, so I prefer to look for levels to sell at around 1.2320/60, hoping for an eventual run back to 1.2260 and possibly to 1.2200/10. SL should be above1.2370 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.2411 | 22 Feb high | 1.2280 | Friday low | ||
| 1.2380 | Minor | 1.2259 | 22 Feb low | ||
| 1.2359 | 21 Feb high | 1.2235 | Minor | ||
| 1.2336 | 22 Feb high | 1.2205 | 9 Feb low | ||
| 1.2300 | Minor | 1.2180 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M: Chicago Fed National Activity Index – Jan, US New Home Sales – Jan, Dallas Fed Mfg Business Climate – Feb
T: German Provisional CPI/HICP, EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, US Goods Trade Balance, Durable Goods – Jan, Case Shiller House Price Index – Dec, House Price Index – Dec, Wholesale Inventories, -Jan, Richmond Fed Mfg Index- Feb, API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
W: German Consumer Confidence Survey – Mar, German Unemployment – Feb, Provisional EU CPI – Feb, US Provisional Q4 GDP/Personal Consumption/Expenditure Index, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, – Feb, Pending Home Sales, – Jan, Fed’s Powell Testimony to Congress, EIA weekly crude oil stock change
T: German Import/Export Index- Q4, EU Mfg PMIs, EU Unemployment – Jan, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure Price Index – Jan, Personal Income/Spending – Jan, Jobless Claims, US Mfg PMI – Feb, ISM Mfg/Prices Paid – Feb, Construction Spending – Jan, Total Vehicle Sales -Feb,
F: German Retail Sales- Jan, EU PPI – Jan, ISM Business Conditions Feb, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
…
| USDJPY: 106.86 |
| US$Jpy fell from above 107.00 to a 106.50 low on Friday, but does seem to have the chance of another squeeze higher today unless risk sentiment turns against it. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning higher? | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: US$Jpy is sitting right on the 200 HMA, which may act a s magnate for Monday, but with the short term momentum indicators and the dailies also looking a little more positive, another test of 107.00/20 would not surprise and buying dips is preferred, but with a SL place tight below Friday’s low of 106.50. The weekly charts still suggest the dollar could suffer further downside pressure and much will depend on the direction of US yields and stockmarkets. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 108.00 | Minor | 106.75 | Minor | ||
| 107.89 | 14 Feb high /21 Feb high | 106.50 | Friday low | ||
| 107.76 | 22 Feb high | 106.20 | Minor | ||
| 107.50 | Minor | 106.00 | Minor | ||
| 107.13 | Friday high | 105.80 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T:
W: Provisional Industrial Production – Jan, Retail Trade – Jan, Housing Starts, Construction Orders – Jan
T: Nikkei Mfg PMI – Feb, Consumer Confidence Index – Feb,
F: Japan CPI-Ex F/E – Jan, Unemployment -Jan
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3969 |
| Cable was confined mostly to a 40 point range on Friday, but not before a typical Cable type move, spiking down to 1.3905 and then back to 1.4000, where it could remain today given that there is a large option expiry at this level later in the NY session. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning Neutral. | Weekly Indicators: Up –Possible topping formation. | |||
| Preferred Strategy: Cable is trading ever- tighter ranges, forming a possible triangle and looks ready to break one way or the other for quite a strong move. I suspect keeping a neutral stance is wise right now, but possibly looking to trade the break of either 1.4061 or 1.3860 and putting a 50 point stop in place may be the right idea. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.4100 | Minor | 1.3960 | Minor | ||
| 1.4070 | Minor | 1.3935 | Minor | ||
| 1.4040 | Minor | 1.3920 | Minor | ||
| 1.4024 | 22 Feb high | 1.3904 | Friday low | ||
| 1.4008/04 | 21 Feb high /Friday high | 1.3880 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T:
W:UK Consumer Confidence – Feb
T: UK Mfg PMI – Jan, Consumer Credit – Jan
F:
…
| USDCHF: 0.9360 |
| US$Chf continues to recover from its fall to 0.9187 (16 Feb), to finish the week at 0.9360, and looking a little more positive heading into Monday trade. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning higher | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The dailies look constructive, so I prefer to look to buy dips, possibly around 0.9300/0.9285, with a SL placed at 0.9230. The immediate target is 0.9410, and above there we may get a chance to see 0.9470/0.9500. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.9510 | (38.2% of 1.0037 /0.9187) | 0.9340 | Minor | ||
| 0.9469 | 8 Feb low | 0.9322 | Friday low | ||
| 0.9408 | 22 Feb high | 0.9300 | Minor | ||
| 0.9387 | (23.6% of 1.0037 /0.9187) | 0.9275 | 100 HMA | ||
| 0.9373 | Friday high | 0.9262 | 22 Feb low | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T:
W:
T: Q4 GDP, Retail Sales
F:
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7839 |
| The Aud ended the week at 0.7840 after having recovered from the week’s low of 0.7790; although the dailies do look heavy and further weakness seems possible. The China Feb NBS PMIS and the Australian Q4 CAPEX are key data risks for the Aud$ this week | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Neutral – Turning lower? | Weekly Indicators: Neutral – Turning lower? | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators have now turned a little higher and hint at another test of 0.7860/70, a break of which would allow for a run back to 0.7900 although this seems doubtful.The dailies are looking a little heavy, so selling rallies is mildly preferred although I suspect it may be a mostly rangebound today. If we do see a squeeze higher, look to sell at around 0.7860/70, hoping for a return to 0.7790/00 and possibly to 0.7760/70 which should be decent support if/when we get there. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7901 | 21 Feb high | 0.7825 | Minor | ||
| 0.7885 | Minor | 0.7803 | Friday low | ||
| 0.7870 | Minor | 0.7789 | 22 Feb low | ||
| 0.7859 | 22 Feb high | 0.7772 | 200 DMA/100 DMA | ||
| 0.7846 | Friday high | 0.7758 | 9 Feb low | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T: New Home Sales – Jan
W: Private Sector Credit – Jan, China NBS Mfg/Non-Mfg PMIs
T: AIG Performance of Mfg Index – Feb, CAPEX – Q4, Caixin China Services PMI
F: Caixin China Manufacturing PMI – Feb, RBA Commodity Index
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7292 |
| The Kiwi is lower at the start of the week after sinking from the 0.7345 high to a low of 0.7270 ahead of a late bounce, to close at just under 0.7300. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The charts generally look rather heavy for the Kiwi and looking to sell rallies, trading from the short side seems to be the plan. A SL placed above Friday’s high should be put in place, with the target being the major Fibo level at around 0.7185, (38.2% of 0.6780/0.7438). A close below the 8 Feb low of 0.7176 would eventually suggest lower levels still, but we have to wait and see on that. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7385 | 21 Feb high | 0.7275/70 | (61.8% of 0.7176/0.7436)/Friday low | ||
| 0.7370 | 100 HMA | 0.7250 | Rising trend support | ||
| 0.7364 | 22 Feb high | 0.7240 | 14 Feb low | ||
| 0.7344 | Friday high | 0.7220 | Minor | ||
| 0.7320 | Minor | 0.7200 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T: Trade Balance – Jan
W: Visitor Arrivals – Jan, ANZ Activity Outlook. Business Confidence -Feb
T: Terms of Trade – Q4
F: NZ Building Permits – Jan
By February 26, 2018