EURUSD: 1.1650 |
Preferred Strategy: EurUsd is sharply lower after the ECB meeting and looks as though the head shoulder trade is coming to fruition, in which case the target is at around 1.1250. The NY close is below the neckline (1.1660) – an increasingly bearish sign. There is plenty of work to do before that and while the momentum indicators are generally pointing lower, the short term momentum indicators are now becoming oversold. If we do see a short squeeze, look to sell into rallies today at around 1.1700, with a SL placed above 1.1730Sell EurUsd @ 1.1695. SL @ 1.1730, TP @ 1.1500. | |||
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Bearish | ||
FX Charts Position: Short | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
1.1760 | (50% of 1.1879/1.1640) | 1.1660 | 100 DMA/H.S. Neckline |
1.1732 | (38.2% of 1.1879/1.1640) | 1.1640 | Session low |
1.1720 | Minor | 1.1612 | 26 July low |
1.1695 | (23.6% of 1.1879/1.1640) | 1.1580 | Minor |
1.1680 | Minor | 1.1510 | Rising trend support/(38.2% of 1.0570/1.2091) |
Economic data highlights will include:
US Q3 GDP, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
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USDJPY: 113.96 |
Preferred Strategy: US$Jpy has remain rangebound on Thursday, with all the action being in the Yen crosses, which are generally lower (Yen strength).. With both the 1 & 4 hour charts still looking rather uninspired further choppy action looks possible although the dailies continue to pick up a more positive tone, and on the topside, back above 114.00, resistance will be seen at the 25 Oct high of 114.25, above which there is not too much to stop the dollar heading towards 114.50 and beyond that, to the major descending trend resistance, currently at 115.05. If US bond yields continue to climb, then US$Jpy will be testing 115.00 in the near future. On the downside, support will arrive at 113./50, at 133.35 (session low) low, and again at the 24 Oct low at 113.24. Below that, a test of 113.00 could be on the cards, beneath which would see us back in the previous 112/113 range. Minor support should arrive at 113.20/00 below which 112.80 (rising trend support) and Friday’s low of 112.50 should provide decent backup. Overall, with the daily momentum indicators look mildly positive, so buying dips still seems to be the plan although there may be slightly better levels to do so. Buy US$Jpy @ 113.40. SL @ 112.95, TP @ 114.40. | |||
24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips | ||
FX Charts Position: Flat | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
115.05 | Descending trend resistance | 113.50 | Minor |
114.80 | Minor | 113.33 | Session low |
114.49 | 11 July high | 113.24 | 24 Oct low |
114.24 | 25 Oct high | 113.10 | Rising trend support |
114.03 | Session high | 112.60 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
CPI
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GBPUSD: 1.3159 |
Preferred Strategy: Cable has given up the previous day’s gains and is back at 1.3150 and remains very choppy so I prefer to continue with a neutral stance against the US$ although I still like being long GbpAud, which I think is eventually headed to 1.82. As far as Cable is concerned, stay neutral as the momentum indicators are generally mixed/flat, although the 4 hourlies are possibly rolling over to head a little lower and we may just see Sterling follow the Euro around today.. | |||
24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
FX Charts Position: GbpUsd -Flat. (Long GbpAud) | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
1.3286 | 17 Oct high | 1.3149 | Session low |
1.3278 | Session high | 1.3130 | Minor |
1.3250 | Minor | 1.3109 | 25 Oct low |
1.3230 | Minor | 1.3086 | 20 Oct low |
1.3195 | 100 HMA/200 HMA | 1.3035 | Rising trend support |
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USDCHF: 0.9976 |
Preferred Strategy: US$Chf is finishing Thursday at the top of its range and at new trend highs at 0.9978. As before, with the dailies looking increasingly positive I suspect that the dollar will eventually take a look at 1.0000+ although it has to overcome Fibo resistance at 0.9990 first. . Dips look supported at 0.9940 today and buying there with a SL placed under 0.9900 seems to be the plan. Buy US$Chf @ 0.9940. SL @ 0.9895, TP @ 1.0050 | |||
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Mildly Bullish | ||
FX Charts Position: Long | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
1.0099 | 11 May high | 0.9940 | Minor |
1.0020 | Minor | 0.9915 | Minor |
1.0000 | Psychological | 0.9900 | 100 HMA |
0.9990 | (61.8% of 1.0343/0.9420) | 0.9875 | Session low |
0.9978 | Session high | 0.9868 | 25 Oct low |
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AUDUSD: 0.7656 |
Preferred Strategy: The Aud looks heavier by the day and staying short, looking to add to the position seems to be the plan today. 0.7690/0.7715 should provide decent resistance as we look for a run towards 0.7630 and below that, eventually towards 0.7570. Sell AudUsd @ 0.7715. SL @ 0.7760, TP @ 0.7630 | |||
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Mildly Bearish | ||
FX Charts Position: Short | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
0.7760 | (23.6% of 0.8102/0.7655) | 0.7655 | Session low |
0.7735 | Minor | 0.7630 | (61.8% of 0.7328/0.8124) |
0.7715 | Minor | 0.7600 | Minor |
0.7690 | 200 DMA | 0.7580 | Minor |
0.7675 | Minor | 0.7571 | 7 July low |
Economic data highlights will include:
Australian PPI
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NZDUSD: 0.6840 |
Preferred Strategy: The Kiwi remains very heavy and I think lower levels still lie ahead. The dailies remain negative and as before, trading from the short side and selling rallies seems to be the plan. On the downside, a move back below the session low of 0.6833 would target the 0.6817 May 2017 low, beneath which there is not too much support ahead of 0.6670. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.6880/0.6900 and selling into rallies is preferred. Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6885. SL @ 0.0.6920, TP @ 0.6815 | |||
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Bearish | ||
FX Charts Position: Flat | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
0.6950 | Minor | 0.6833 | Session low |
0.6920 | (23.6% of 0.7210/0.6833) | 0.6817 | 11 May low |
0.6903 | Session high | 0.6800 | Minor |
0.6880 | Minor | 0.6760 | Minor |
0.6865 | Minor | 0.6720 | Minor |
By October 27, 2017
Source: FXCharts