28 Mar: US$ firmer, Stocks, bond yields sharply lower. US Q4 GDP/PCE in focus today: FXCharts

It has been a volatile session on Tuesday, with the main theme being that of a mild US$ recovery and a sharp 1%-1.5% sell off in US stocks (DJI/S+P), as Q1 flows – in terms of long w/e position squaring/profit taking – dominate the action. The NASDAQ is down around 3%.  The Euro, Sterling and Aud$ in particular  took a hit in Europe/US trade although no particular catalyst was apparent, and both the Euro and Sterling (but not the Aud$) have since seen a partial recovery as US bond yields came off quite sharply, with the US 10 year currently at 2.77%, under 2.8% for the first time in 6 weeks. Earlier in the day, Sterling was pressured by some demand for EurGbp and some M/A supply following the announcement of the deal between GSK/Novartis. In the commodities markets, Gold headed lower on the back of the dollar strength after fears of a global trade war moderated amid ongoing China-U.S. dialogue on trade. WTI also settled lower as traders waited for the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change, coming up shortly, which are expected to show U.S. crude stockpiles resumed their expansion amid an ongoing ramp up in domestic output.

Wednesday will kick off with the NZ ANZ Activity Outlook and Business Confidence for March although there is nothing else to come from Asia and then very little from Europe either. The main focus of the day is going to be on the US Q4 GDP (exp 2.6% annualised), Goods Trade Balance (exp -$72.5bio), and Personal Consumption/Expenditure (exp 2.9% – Prices, 2.0% – Expenditure). Also coming from the US will be the Pending Home Sales for Feb (exp  +0.5% mm, -0.2%yy), February Provisional Wholesale Inventories (exp 0.2%mm) and a speech from FOMC member, Bostic, late in the day. Have a good day.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.2402
Res  1.2415  1.2450  1.2475
Sup  1.2375  1.2350  1.2310
USDJPY: 105.34
Res  105.50  105.75  105.90
Sup  105.25  104.90  104.60
GBPUSD: 1.4160
Res  1.4180  1.4200  1.4245
Sup  1.4130  1.4100  1.4065
USDCHF: 0.9463
Res  0.9490  0.9505  0.9515
Sup  0.9450  0.9435  0.9425
AUDUSD: 0.7680
Res  0.7725  0.7700  0.7755
Sup  0.7670  0.7645  0.7625
NZDUSD: 0.7266
Res  0.7280  0.7300  0.7320
Sup  0.7260  0.7245  0.7230
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2612
Res  2635  2655  2680
Sup  2595  2575  2555
DJI: 23845
Res  24030  24210  24440
Sup  23690  23495  23320
ASX SPI: 5761
Res  5780  5800  5825
Sup  5720  5740  5700
XAUUSD: 1345
Res  1350  1355  1360
Sup  1340  1330  1320
XAGUSD: 16.52
Res  16.65  16.80  17.00
Sup  16.45  16.35  16.20
WTI: 64.64
Res  65.25  65.95  66.55
Sup  64.40  63.75  63.00

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