30 Apr: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas: FXCharts

EURUSD: 1.2129
The dollar initially made further gains on Friday assisted by a weak French GDP number and firm US GDP/PCE figures, with EurUsd falling to 1.2055 but then turned higher as profit taking on short Euro positions set in, allowing the pair to recover to 1.2130. Having finished at session highs further corrective gains now look possible, albeit within the greater downtrend.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher. Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower.
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators seem to be in recovery mode after last week’s selloff and further near term gains appear to be on the cards. If so, look for offers at 1.2150 ahead of the chance of further gains to 1.2185/1.2200. I doubt we see it above here today but if wrong look for a squeeze back towards 1.2215, which should be solid resistance if we see it.The medium term charts still look heavy though, and as long as we stay under 1.2215, I suspect that the current bounce is corrective and that selling rallies remains the theme.  Back below 1.2100 & 1.2085 would re-open Friday’s low, which should remain solid support but below which we could then head below 1.2030 which should also be strong support. A break of 1.2030 would allow for 1.2000/05 where the 200 DMA lies, again a strong support level but below which could see an acceleration to 1.1915/30 and event to long term rising trend support, currently at 1.1880.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.2200. SL @ 1.2230, TP @ 1.2100

Buy EurUsd @ 1.2080. SL @ 1.2040, TP @ 1.2180

Resistance Support
1.2215 (38.2% of 1.2475/1.2055)/100 DMA 1.2100 Minor
1.2200 Minor 1.2085 Minor
1.2185 Minor 1.2050//54 (50% of 1.1553/1.2555) /Monthly Tankan//Friday low
1.2152 (23.6% of 1.2475/1.2055) 1.2030 (23.6% of 1.0340/1.2555)
1.2131 Friday high 1.2000 200 DMA

Economic data highlights will include:

M: German Retail Sales, Import Price Index, CPI/HICP, US Personal Income Consumption/Expenditure Index Deflator, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg Business Climate

T:  EU Holiday – Labour Day, US Markit Mfg PMI, ISM Mfg PMI

W:  ECB Non-MP Meeting, EU Mfg PMIs, EU Q1 Provisional GDP, US ISM NY Index- Business Conditions, ADP Private Jobs data, FOMC Meeting – Interest Rate Decision

T: EU Preliminary CPI – Apr, US Trade Balance, Jobless Claims, Markit Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs Services PMI, ISM Non-Mfg PMI, Factory Orders

F: EU Services/Composite PMIs, US Unemployment Report Jobs/NFP/Average Hourly Earnings data

USDJPY: 109.05
US$Jpy was choppy and drifted a little lower on Friday, unaffected by the BOJ Meeting / Statement although it remains close to its highs, with 109.52 seen briefly during the session, a new trend high, before finishing back just above 109.00. Japan is out for much of this week so liquidity will be a little thin for the Jpy pairs.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators: Turning higher
Preferred Strategy:  As before, the daily and weekly momentum indicators look positive for further gains while the short term charts still appear to be turning a little lower, so we may need further corrective work before the dollar can continue its current run to the topside.If so,  on the downside, buyers will be seen today at 108.95/00, which should be reasonable support, and then at 108.80 ahead of the 24 April low of 108.53, although that remains someway off, and trading from the long side is again preferred; today looking for dips towards 108.80/50, with a SL placed under 108.40

A move above the current trend high of 109.52 would find offers at 109.65 and 110.00 ahead of 110.25, which should be strong if/when we get there. Further out, as we said before, note the reverse SHS formation, with the neckline at 107.85, which has now been broken and suggests a target at somewhere near 110.70.

Buy US$Jpy @ 108.65. SL @ 108.40, TP @ 109.65

Resistance Support
110.50 Minor 109.00/108.96 100 DMA /Friday low
110.25 200 DMA /(61.8% of 114.73/104.60) 108.78 25 Apr low
110.00 Minor 108.53 24 April low
109.65 (50% of 114.73/104.60) 108.35 (23.6% of 104.60/108.52)
109.52 Friday high 108.00 Minor

M: Holiday

T:  Nikkei Mfg PMI

W:  Japan Services PMI

T: Holiday

F: Holiday

GBPUSD: 1.3778
Cable once again remained under pressure on Friday, collapsing after the poor UK Q1 GDP result, with a BOE hike now looking well over the horizon. Having reached a high of 1.3934 it was then a one way trip to the low of 1.3747, before closing at 1.3780.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower. Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:   The long term momentum indicators look increasingly difficult for Cable and a test of the long term rising trend support, currently at 1.3700 would not surprise in the days ahead. A break of 1.3700 would find minor bids at 1.3660 although there really is not too much to prop it up ahead of the 200 DMA, currently at 1.3525.On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1.3800 and at 1.3840 although that seems some way off, but further offers should arrive in the 1.3875/00 area which should be a decent sell if we get there with a SL placed above 1.3950.
Resistance Support
1.3920 100 HMA 1.3770 (23.6% of 1.1821/1.4376)
1.3895 (23.6% of 1.4376/1.3746) 1.3746 Friday low
1.3875 100 DMA 1.3711 1 March low
1.3840 Minor 1.3700/05 Rising trend support /Weekly Kijun
1.3800 Minor 1.3660 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                                        


T:  UK Mfg PMI, Consumer Credit – Mar

W:  UK Construction PMI


F: UK Services PMI

USDCHF: 0.9879
US$Chf had another squeeze higher on Friday in reaching a new trend high of 0.9919 before a reverse that took it back to finish the week at 0.9880. The     SNB’s Jordan noted the reduction in overvaluation of the Chf butStated that it also remains highly valued. EurChf was choppy but at the day’s highs at 1.1985.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower. Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:   Up
Preferred Strategy:  While the medium term indicators still look positive for further gains in US$Chf – and there is no change to the view of trading from the long side -, the short term momentum indicators now look corrective and I suspect we may be in for some dollar weakness in the coming session. If so, back below 0.9870, bids should arrive at 0.9845/50 and at 0.9815 ahead of 0.9800 and 0.9780. Buying dips into expected weakness is still preferred, with a SL placed sub 0.9770On the topside, the longer term indicators are pointing higher, and back beyond 0.9900 could see a run back 0.9920 and then to 0.9935 and on to 0.9975/1.0000 albeit probably not today.

Given the look of the short term momentum indicators, either sell US$Chf above 0.9900 for a run towards 0.9815 or strategically hang on to current long positions looking for an eventual resumption of the rally, looking at some stage for a move towards 1.0000.

Buy US$Chf @ 0.9830. SL @ 0.9770, TP @ 0.9930

Resistance Support
1.0000 Psychological 0.9871 Friday low
0.9977 8 Dec high 0.9840 Minor
0.9934 15 Dec high 0.9815 26 Apr low
0.9919 Friday high 0.9780 100 DMA /25 Apr low
0.9900 (61.8% of 1.0037/0.186) 0.9767 24 April low

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                                        


T:  Holiday

W: Swiss Consumer Climate



AUDUSD: 0.7581
The Aud found a new trend low of 0.7532 on Friday before an solid bounce to finish Friday at session highs of 0.7580, although well under 0.7600. RBA tomorrow. China Mfg/Non-Mfg PMIs, Australian Private Sector Credit – Mar, RBA Governor Lowe; Speech today.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:   While we have seen a near term bounce off the lows, the longer term charts remains heavy and would seem to have further losses to come in the days ahead, although much will depend on the outlook of the RBA, tomorrow. If so, back below 0.7550 would once again find support at the Fibo levels at 0.7530/20 and then at the early December low of 0.7501. Under here would open the way to much lower levels, with little support seen ahead of the 1 June 2017 low at 0.7371.On the topside, with the short term momentum indicators looking a bit more positive today, resistance will be seen at right here at 0.7585/90 ahead of 0.7600/05 and then at 0.7620, if we get there. Further out, above 0.7620 would allow a return to 0.7635/40 although this looks rather doubtful to be seen again for a while and selling rallies is preferred.

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7605. SL @ 0.7645, TP @ 0.7530

Resistance Support
0.7637 (38.2% of 0.7813/0.7531) 0.7550 Minor
0.7620 24 April high 0.7530 (61.8% of 0.7160/0.8135)/Friday low
0.7605 25 Apr high 0.7519 (76.4% of 0.7328/0.8135)
0.7598 (23.6% of 0.7813/0.7531) 0.7501 8 Dec low
0.7588/83 26 Apr high /Friday high 0.7470 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

M: China Mfg/Non-Mfg PMIs, Australian Private Sector Credit – Mar, RBA Governor Lowe; Speech.

T:  AIG Performance of Mfg Index, Building Permits, New Home Sales, RBA Interest Rate Decision /Statement, Commodity Index

W:  TD Inflation, Caixin China Manufacturing PMI

T: AIG Performance of Services Index, New Home Sales, Building Permits,

F: RBA Monetary Policy Statement, Trade Balance, Caixin China Services PMI

NZDUSD: 0.7085
 The Kiwi initially had another tough day in trading at 2018 lows of 0.7039 but then found some life to bounce to close just below session highs of 0.7095, thus ending the 8 day losing streak.
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher Daily Indicators:  Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:   The hourly/4 hourly momentum indicators seem quite constructive for the Kiwi today and a test of 0.7100 would not surprise, but with the daily momentum indicators pointing lower, I prefer to look for levels to sell into.If we do see a squeeze higher, the Kiwi needs to break the minor double top at 0.7095 (Thur/Fri highs) above which would allow for a return to the 25 Apr high at 0.7120, where the initial Fibo resistance also lies.  Above there, minor resistance at 0.7130 lies ahead of further minor levels although there is not too much to stop a return to 0.7175 (23.6% of 0.7395/0.7038)

On the downside, support will be seen at 0.7055/50 ahead of the 0.7038 Friday low. 0.7030 is important Fibo support, but below which would open the way to 0.7000. Below 0.7000 there is not much to hold the Kiwi up ahead of 0.6935 (76.4% of 0.6780/0.7438) and then 0.6915, long term rising trend support, which is where I think we are eventually heading.

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.7120. SL @ 0.7155, TP @ 0.7040

Resistance Support
0.7150 Minor 0.7055 Minor
0.7131 24 Apr high 0.7030/38 (61.8% of 0.6780/0.7438)/Friday low
0.7122 (23.6% of 0.7395/0.7038) /25 Apr high 0.7015 Minor
0.7105 Minor 0.7000 Minor
0.7094 26 Apr high/Friday high 0.6953 20 Dec low

Economic data highlights will include:

M: ANZ Activity Outlook, Business Outlook

T:  Building Permits – Mar, Global Dairy Trade Index

W:  Unemployment

T: ANZ Commodity Prices

F: RBNZ Inflation Expectations

By | April 30, 2018
Source: FXCharts

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