| EURUSD: 1.2379 |
| EurUsd has traded with a heavy tone for much of the day as US yields pushed higher, with the 10years briefly breaching 2.7%. The pair has bounced off its lows of 1.2336 but it does look as though the correction could continue through Tuesday. The EU Q4 GDP and German January inflation figures are key data risks coming up. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Up | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher | |||
| Preferred Strategy: With the short term momentum indicators pointing lower, a continuation of Monday’s correction lower would not surprise and a run back towards 1.2335 would seem possible, below which there is Fibo support at 1.2305. A break of 1.2300 would then allow a move towards 1.2225 although possibly not today.With the daily/weekly charts still looking positive though, any weakness may be short lived and buying dips may still be the medium term trade. The 100 MMA/200 MMA will provide stiff resistance, but above 1.2500 would then target 1.2538, beyond which would open 1.2650. In the meantime, look for the 100 MMA/200 MMA to cap it and selling into rallies is the near term plan.
Sell EurUsd @ 1.2430. SL @ 1.2505, TP @ 1.2325 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.2537 | 25 Jan high | 1.2360 | Minor | ||
| 1.2500 | (38.2% of 1.6037/1.0340) | 1.2336 | Session low | ||
| 1.2460 | 100 MMA | 1.2317 | 200 HMA | ||
| 1.2431 | Session high | 1.2305 | (23.6% of 1.1553/1.2537) | ||
| 1.2425 | 200 MMA | 1.2270 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
German CPI/HICP, EU Preliminary Q4 GDP, Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, US Case Shiller House Price Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
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| USDJPY: 108.97 |
| US$Jpy has regained some of the recent lost ground, finding support at 108.50 and climbing to test the Weekly cloud base at 109.20, underpinned by firmer US bond yields. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Mixed – Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are now looking a little more positive and if 109.20 can be overcome, look for a run back towards 109.70/80 and possibly onto 110.00. The longer term charts still look heavy though and it may be that we do see a return towards the session low of 108.50, below which would head to the 26 Jan low of 108.27. A break of this would then find little to hold the dollar up until rising trend support at 107.50 and the 2017 low at 107.32.Allowing for a dip, the short term momentum indicators do suggest that today we should be looking to buy into weakness, but with a tight SL in place.
Buy US$Jpy @ 108.60. SL @ 108.15, TP @ 109.70 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 110.00 | 200 HMA | 108.50 | Session low | ||
| 109.76 | 26 Jan high | 108.27 | 26 Jan low | ||
| 109.47 | (23.6% of 111.38/108.27) | 108.00 | Minor | ||
| 109.19 | Session high /100 HMA /Weekly cloud base | 107.80 | Minor | ||
| 109.00 | Minor | 107.45 | Rising trend support | ||
…
| GBPUSD: 1.4070 |
| Sterling was heavy due the internal Tory party politics on Monday, falling from a high of 1.4158 to a low of 1.4025, but has bounced a little into the NY close after finding good support at the 200 HMA. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Up | Weekly Indicators: Up | |||
| Preferred Strategy: Sterling appears to have put in a medium term top at the end of last week , and with the 4 hour charts pointing sharply lower and the dailies building a possible topping formation, selling rallies does now appear to be the plan. Below the Monday low, there is not too much support until 1.3850 although 1.4000 is likely to remain a strong psychological area. On the topside, minor resistance will be seen at 1.4100 and at 1.4150/60. Selling rallies is favoured. Note that BOE Governor, Mark Carney will be speaking late in the session.Sell GbpUsd @ 1.4150. SL @ 1.4205, TP @ 1.4035
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.4240 | Minor | 1.4050 | Minor | ||
| 1.4200 | Minor | 1.4035 | (23.6% of 1.3039/1.4344) | ||
| 1.4158 | Session high/100 HMA | 1.4027 | Session low | ||
| 1.4130 | Minor | 1.4000 | Minor | ||
| 1.4100 | Minor | 1.3945 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Mortgage Approvals, Consumer Credit, Net Lending, BOE Governor, Mark Carney Speech
…
| USDCHF: 0.9376 |
| US$Chf managed creep a little higher on Monday, although the range was tight but looks as though it may want to extend a little further to the topside. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Mixed – Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Down | Weekly Indicators: Neutral – Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: As before, the longer term charts look heavy, and if the support at 0.9288 does get taken out we could head quickly to the August 2015 low at 0.9257, below which there is a black hole until around 0.9150.The shorter term charts though look a little more positive and on the topside, minor resistance will be seen at 0.9380/85, a break of which could see the dollar carry on to the 26 Jan high 0.9430. Given the momentum of the 4 hour charts buying dips for the next 24 hours is preferred.
Buy US$Chf @ 0.9330. SL @ 0.9280, TP @ 0.9420 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.9475 | Minor | 0.9350 | Minor | ||
| 0.9452 | (23.6% of 0.9977/0.9288) | 0.9326 | Session low | ||
| 0.9430 | 26 Jan high | 0.9303 | 26 Jan low | ||
| 0.9400 | Minor | 0.9288 | 25 Jan low | ||
| 0.9386 | Session high | 0.9257 | Aug 2015 low | ||
…
| AUDUSD: 0.8093 |
| AudUsd is pretty much unchanged today, sitting close to 0.8100, with traders sitting on their hands ahead of Trump’s SOTU, the FOMC meeting and the Aust Q4 CPI. The HIA New Home Sales, NAB Business Conditions/Confidence (Dec) are due today. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up – Bearish Divergence | Daily Indicators: Up – Becoming Overbought | Weekly Indicators: Neutral – Turning higher | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The longer term uptrend remains intact, and if 0.8162 is taken out then we might expect to see a run towards 0.8200 and higher, with little resistance seen until 0.8245/90. The 4 hour charts are showing some bearish divergence and warn of a possible minor correction lower although good buying interest should be seen at around 0.8050/60 if we see it.Sidelined | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.8180 | Minor | 0.8100 | Pivot | ||
| 0.8162 | May 2015 high | 0.8073 | Session low | ||
| 0.8150 | Minor | 0.8055 | 200 MMA | ||
| 0.8135 | 26 Jan high | 0.8025 | Minor | ||
| 0.8117 | Session high | 0.8004 | 26 Jan low /Rising trend support | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
HIA New Home Sales, NAB Business Conditions/Confidence (Dec)
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7316 |
| The Kiwi is at 0.7320 after a choppy session but so far holding on above critical support in the 0.7280/90 area ahead of the upcoming Trade Balance (exp -$125mio) | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral | Daily Indicators: Up – Possible topping formation. | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher | |||
| Preferred Strategy: As before, the daily charts remain positive but look increasingly toppish, and selling rallies may now be the plan, although if the US$ remains under pressure it may be better to trade it through the crosses, possibly against the Aud? Against the US$, the Kiwi needs to hold above 0.7280/90, below which would break below the rising trend support, possibly signalling that a longer term top is in place and opening the downside towards 0.7185/0.7215. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7450 | Minor | 0.7300 | Session low | ||
| 0.7434/30 | 20 Sept high/25 Jan high | 0.7290 | 26 Jan low /Rising trend support | ||
| 0.7400 | Minor | 0.7280 | (23.6% of 0.6780/0.7433) | ||
| 0.7374 | 26 Jan high | 0.7260 | Minor | ||
| 0.7363 | Session high | 0.7235 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Trade Balance (Dec)
By January 30, 2018
Source: FXCharts