30 Nov: FOMC Minutes leave markets unchanged. All eyes now on weekend G20 Meeting. China Mfg PMI ahead: FXCharts

Markets are mixed to steady today following the FOMC Minutes with all eyes now turning towards the weekend G20 Meeting. The meetings showed that almost all policy makers saw a rate hike warranted ‘fairly soon’, with further gradual hikes ahead, consistent with goals. Earlier in the session, the US$ had an early bid tone although this faltered after some soft US inflation data. The headline PCE figure was unchanged at 2.0% yy in October versus consensus of 2.1% while the Core PCE slowed to 1.8% yy, down from 2.0% yy and missed consensus of 1.9% yy. On the bright side, personal income rose 0.5% while spending rose 0.6%, both above expectations.

FX markets have been choppy but mostly unchanged although Sterling remains heavy amid growing concerns about the UK parliament’s vote on Brexit and after the Bank of England warned of risks to the currency if Britain leaves the European Union in a disorderly manner.

Stocks and the metals are also steady. WTI fell below 50.00 but then recovered on talk that Russia might contribute after all to an oil production cut at the enlarged OPEC+ meeting on Dec. 6.

Looking ahead to Friday, the real focus is going to be on the G20 Meeting and trump’s meeting with president Xi although there is unlikely to be any real detail until the markets are closed for the weekend so be prepared for potential gaps on Monday. Ahead of that Asia will see the NZ Building Permits, Tokyo CPI, Australian Private Sector Credit and the China Mfg/Non-Mfg PMIs. Europe will focus on the November CPI (exp 2.0%yy, Core 1.1%) while the US will be somewhat empty, with just the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index due. Central bank speakers will include the ECB’s Mersch and the Fed’s Williams. Have a good weekend.

Economic data highlights will include:

Fri: G20 Meeting, NZ Building Permits, Tokyo CPI, Japan Unemployment, Industrial Production, Australian Private Sector Credit, , China Mfg/Non-Mfg PMIs, German Retail Sales, EU Unemployment, CPI, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index

EURUSD: 1.1382
Res  1.1400  1.1420  1.1440
Sup  1.1370  1.1350  1.1330
USDJPY: 113.42
Res  113.65  113.90  114.15
Sup  113.20  113.00  112.85
GBPUSD: 1.2778
Res  1.2805  1.2825  1.2850
Sup  1.2755  1.2720  1.2690
USDCHF: 0.9964
Res  1.0005  0.9985  1.0030
Sup  0.9945  0.9915  0.9885
AUDUSD: 0.7317
Res  0.7340  0.7360  0.7380
Sup  0.7300  0.7280  0.7255
NZDUSD: 0.6856
Res  0.6885  0.6915  0.6940
Sup  0.6840  0.6815  0.6790
S&P.FS: 2748
Res  2755  2765  2775
Sup  2735  2725  2715
DJ30.FS: 25419
Res  25500  25635  25755
Sup  25300  25200  25070
SPI200.FS: 5757
Res  5770  5790  5815
Sup  5735  5715  5690
XAUUSD: 1224
Res  1225  1230  1235
Sup  1220  1215  1210
XAGUSD: 14.30
Res  14.40  14.50  14.60
Sup  14.25  14.15  14.05
WTI.FS: 51.48
Res  52.30  53.50  54.60
Sup  50.80  49.50  48.55

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