- Economics/ Politics/Central Banks:
- The Fed minutes hinted at increasing tensions on inflation shortfall
- Fed policymakers discussed possible reasons why financial conditions had not tightened following hikes in Fed funds rate
- Several Fed board member wanted to announce start of balance-sheet trimming within a ‘couple of months’
- Currencies:
- Mostly rangebound, in choppy trade after the release of the Minutes, but are generally unchanged.
- The DXY finished at 96.27.
EURUSD: 1.1348 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Mixed.
- Daily momentum indicators: Possible topping formation
- Upcoming market moving events: The ECB Monetary Policy Minutes and German Factory Orders will be the European focus, to be followed in the US by the ADP Jobs data (exp +187K), Trade Balance and the weekly Jobless Claims.
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: A neutral stance is required ahead of today’s ADP figure and then tomorrow’s NFP, and with the momentum indicators looking mixed it would seem that we are in for a choppy ride, but possibly without any real direction.Back below 1300/10, may see a move to 1.1280 and possibly to 1.1260, but buying dips still seems to be the plan given the positive look of the longer term momentum indicators. Below 1.1260 could then see a slide towards 1.1235
On the topside, minor resistance lies in the 1.1370/1.1400 area, but a break of which would then target 1.1445/50. A break of this would then open the way to the May 2016 high of 1.1616 although this seems rather unlikely for a while to come. Look for 1.13/1.14 again today (1.1310/80) and wait for the NFP to provide the directional move tomorrow. |
|||
Resistance | Support | ||
1.1480 | Minor | 1.1320 | (38.2% of 1.1117/1.1445) |
1.1445 | Descending trend resistance/29 June high/29 June high | 1.1311 | Session low |
1.1426 | 3 July high | 1.1285 | (50% of 1.1117/1.1445) |
1.1380 | 100 HMA | 1.1265 | Minor |
1.1368 | Session high | 1.1242 | (61.8% of 1.1117/1.1445) |
Economic data highlights will include:
German Factory Orders, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US ADP Jobs data, Trade Balance, Jobless Claims
——————————————————————————————————————————–
…
USDJPY: 113.20 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Turning lower?
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
- Upcoming market moving events: Nil
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Mildly Bullish | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: US$Jpy consolidated near 113.00 again on Tuesday, trading within a range of 112.82/113.68.Look for much the same today. The short term momentum indicators are beginning to look a bit heavy to me and we may see a drift lower, but the dallies remain positive so buying dips remains the overall gameplan. | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
114.35 | 10 May high | 112.82 | Session low |
114.00 | Minor | 112.73 | 4 July low |
113.85 | 15 May high | 112.52 | (23.6% of 108.80/113.68) |
113.68 | Session high | 112.35 | 200 HMA |
113.50 | Minor | 112.05 | Minor |
…
GBPUSD: 1.2932 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Mixed. Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher?
- Upcoming market moving events: NIESR GDP Estimate
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Cable has traded a tight range of 1.2893/1.2947 and something similar would seem to be in store today although the NIESR GDP Estimate may provide some volatility. The momentum indicators are mixed but possible short term weakness looks possible, which would again find support at 1.2910 (Daily cloud top) and the session low of 1.2893, but below which could run to 1.2860. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1.2850, 1.2880, 1.3000 and again at 1.3022, the 3 July high. | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
1.3047 | 18 May high | 1.2910 | Daily cloud top |
1.3022 | 3 July high | 1.2892 | Session low |
1.3000 | Pivot | 1.2860 | (38.2% of 1.2588/1.3029) |
1.2958 | 4 July high | 1.2810 | (50% of 1.2588/1.3029) |
1.2947 | Session high | 1.2785 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
NIESR GDP Estimate
…
USDCHF: 0.9644 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher?
- Upcoming market moving events: Swiss CPI
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: US$Chf is a unchanged today, at 0.9650, after a range of 0.9630/87. With the short term momentum indicators now mixed, a similar session ahead looks likely. On the topside, another run to the session high could take us on to 0.9700 and then to 0.9745 although I don’t see it up here today. On the downside, support will be seen at 0.9630, 0.9600 and again at 0.9550/55. Another range trade of 0.9620/0.9685 seems most likely today. | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
0.9745 | Descending trend resistance | 0.9631 | Session low |
0.9730 | Minor | 0.9621 | 4 July low |
0.9700 | Minor | 0.9600 | Minor |
0.9680/87 | (23.6% of 1.0099/0.9555)/Session high | 0.9585 | Minor |
0.9660 | Minor | 0.9555/52 | 3 July low/29 June low |
Economic data highlights will include:
CPI
…
AUDUSD: 0.7604 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Mixed. Turning lower?
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
- Upcoming market moving events: Trade Balance (exp +1.1 bio)
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Neutral –Turning slightly bearish | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The momentum indicators are looking increasingly heavy and selling rallies seems to be the plan, with a SL today placed above 0.7650. Today’s low was 0.7570 and if 0.7565/70 is taken out we may be in for a move towards 0.7540 and possibly to 0.7520. | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
0.7700 | Pivot | 0.7570 | Session low |
0.7685 | Minor | 0.7565 | (38.2% of 0.7328/0.7710) |
0.7660 | 100 HMA | 0.7540 | (50% pivot of 0.7373/0.7710) |
0.7631 | Session high | 0.7520 | (50% pivot of 0.7328/0.7710) |
0.7622 | 200 HMA | 0.7500 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
Trade Balance
…
NZDUSD: 0.7289 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Neutral Turning higher?
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
- Upcoming market moving events: Nil.
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Kiwi still seems to be building a topping formation although the price action is very choppy and difficult to get a handle on. As before, I prefer to sell rallies, with a SL placed above 0.7350 although it may be that we are in for another sideways session today at close to 0.7300. | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
0.7402 | 8 Nov high | 0.7275 | Minor |
0.7360 | Minor | 0.7253 | Session low/28 June low |
0.7344/45 | 3 July high/29 June high | 0.7235 | Minor |
0.7325 | Minor | 0.7220 | (23.6% of 0.6816/0.7343) |
0.7296/98 | Session high/4 July high | 0.7193 | 22 June low |
By July 6, 2017
Source: FXCharts