| EURUSD: 1.2266 |
| EurUsd is lower today as the dollar shorts get squeezed and is closing the day towards the day’s range of 1.2405/1.2245 There is little data due today (German Trade Balance, US Jobless Claims) and so it will be risk sentiment, as measured through the stock markets that again decides the direction. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher | |||
| Preferred Strategy: With the momentum indicators generally pointing lower, further losses now look likely and a break of the session lows would hint at 1.2160, which should be decent support if we see it.Staying short and adding to the position by selling rallies is preferred, with 1.2300/15 looking toppish today.
Sell EurUsd @ 1.2310. SL @ 1.2360, TP @ 1.2170 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.2405 | Session high | 1.2245 | Session low | ||
| 1.2355 | (38.2% of 1.2537/1.2245) | 1.2210 | Minor | ||
| 1.2345 | Minor | 1.2180 | Minor | ||
| 1.2315 | (23.6% of 1.2537/1.2245) | 1.2160 | (38.2% of 1.1553/1.2538) | ||
| 1.2300 | Minor | 1.2135 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
German Trade Balance, EU Economic Bulletin, US Jobless Claims
…
| USDJPY: 109.45 |
| US$Jpy has been stuck in a range today, unable to make any major gains despite the better performing stock market and higher US yields. At the same time the Yen has continued to make gains through the crosses against the EU majors and the commodity bloc currencies. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral | Daily Indicators: Neutral –Turning higher? | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The price action for US$Jpy still looks neutral and some choppy trade seems to lie ahead but much will depend on the direction of stocks/bond yields. If the stock recovery continues, the dollar may yet take out the 109.70 high and head on towards 110.00 and possibly back to 110.35/45, above which may be tricky in the near term, although a break would open up 111.00.On the downside, support will again be seen at 109.00 and 108.70/80. Below there, if we head back below the 6 Feb low of 108.45 it may be that we head to the 26 Jan low of 108.27. A break of this would then find little to hold the dollar up until rising trend support at 107.75 and the 2017 low at 107.32.
Sidelined. |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 110.70 | Minor | 108.91 | Session low | ||
| 110.47 | Friday high | 108.75 | Minor | ||
| 110.35 | (38.2% of 111.38/108.27) | 108.45 | 5 Feb low | ||
| 110.00 | Minor | 108.25 | Minor | ||
| 109.70 | Session high | 107.75 | Rising trend support | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Foreign Bond/Stocks Investment, Trade Balance, Current Account, Eco Watchers Survey
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3881 |
| Sterling is drifting into the NY close towards the day’s lows of 1.3848 as the US$ recovery continues, with traders now looking towards today’s BOE Meeting. No hike is expected although a May hike is priced in at 46% and August at 78%. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning lower. | Weekly Indicators: Up | |||
| Preferred Strategy: As we said before, Cable remains very choppy but the momentum indicators hint that the general direction will be lower so trading from the short side is still preferred.While the short term momentum indicators look heavy, they may be basing as they are becoming a little oversold but the dailies still look heavy and I suspect another run towards 1.3850, and to the 6 Feb low at 1.3835, will eventually be seen so I still prefer to look for levels to get short. Below 1.3835 there is then little support ahead of 1.3700.
On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1.3900/30 and using this as a guide to sell into is preferred today although we might expect some exaggerated volatility from the BOE outcome. Sell GbpUsd @ 1.3910. SL @ 1.3955, TP @ 1.3835 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.4035 | Minor | 1.3848 | Session low | ||
| 1.3993 | Session high | 1.3835 | 5 Feb low /(38.2% of 1.3038/1.4345) | ||
| 1.3975 | Minor | 1.3800 | Minor | ||
| 1.3935 | Minor | 1.3775 | Minor | ||
| 1.3900 | Minor | 1.3735 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
BOE Meeting/Statement/Minutes/Vote Count/APP Facility
…
| USDCHF: 0.9437 |
| US$Chf did as we hoped and headed higher, reaching 0.9455, closing not too far away and with the charts looking positive, further gains seem possible. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Turning higher | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: Looking to buy dips towards 0.9400 seems to be the plan, hoping for a continuation of the run higher, eventually towards 0.9525.Buy US$Chf @ 0.9410. SL @ 0.9350, TP @ 0.9520 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.9540 | Minor | 0.9400 | Minor | ||
| 0.9525 | (38.2% of 0.9977/0.9250) | 0.9375 | Minor | ||
| 0.9500 | Minor | 0.9355 | Daily Tenkan | ||
| 0.9475 | Minor | 0.9335/39 | 200 HMA /Session low | ||
| 0.9454 | Session high | 0.9300 | Minor | ||
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7820 |
| AudUsd spent the European session near 0.7870, before succumbing to US$ strength and heading towards 0.7815, ahead of a mild bounce into the close. Today’s initial direction will come via the China Trade Balance (Exp. Imports; 9.8%/Exports; 9.6%). Note that RBA Governor Lowe will be speaking later today. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Down | Weekly Indicators: Neutral – Turning higher | |||
| Preferred Strategy: Having reached the 0.7815 support, we may hang around here for a while but with the momentum indicators looking heavy an eventual break would not surprise, targeting 0.7780/60. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 7835 and 0.7850. Above here seems unlikely today and right now selling rallies is preferred, with a SL placed at around 0.7880/90Sell AudUsd @ 0.7850. SL @ 0.7880, TP @ 0.7765 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7937 | (38.2% of 0.8135/0.7835) | 0.7825 | 200 WMA | ||
| 0.7908 | Session high | 0.7817 | (50% of 0.7502/0.8135)/Session low | ||
| 0.7890 | (23.6% of 0.8135/0.7835) | 0.7800 | Minor | ||
| 0.7870 | Minor | 0.7780 | 100 DMA | ||
| 0.7850 | Minor | 0.7762 | (38.2% of 0.7160/0.8135) | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
China Trade Balance, RBA Governor Lowe Speech.
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7232 |
| The Kiwi spent much of the session drifting away from the 0.7345 highs, seen in the wake of yesterday’s NZ jobs data, and accelerated lower following the RBNZ decision to leave rates on hold. The statement did the damage though, indicating that policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period andmaintaining its forecast for rates to rise in Q2 2019 | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The momentum indicators are now generally hinting that a top is in place for the Kiwi and selling rallies is preferred, looking for an eventual move towards 0.7185. Selling near-term rallies towards 0.7270 may now be the plan, with a SL placed above 0.7300.Sell NzdUsd @ 0.7270. SL @ 0.7320, TP @ 0.7190 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7345 | Session high | 0.7216 | Session low | ||
| 0.7330 | Minor | 0.7200 | Minor | ||
| 0.7300 | Minor | 0.7187 | (38.2% of 0.6780/0.7364) | ||
| 0.7275 | Minor | 0.7160 | Minor | ||
| 0.7255 | Minor | 0.7140 | 200 DMA | ||
By February 8, 2018
Source: FXCharts