COT AUD… saw again perfect bearish scenario as OI up with total lev adding business to the downside together with asset managers (downtrend extending)… Only concern is that dealer longs (net hedgers providing supply) at 80%+ vs OI! not sustainable much longer… Also the last leg lower has extended over 600 pips, equal to 1st leg lower (check weekly), so ABC structure… Market can remain sold until 70 big target if NFP strong… won’t surprise…but the big deal this week is the new view by RBA Stevens on AUD… i think that could def be used as excuse to take profits as market continues bet lower… on the options market, AUD puts still priced significantly higher than calls for Aug… and rest of yr…
Just reading the DB Gamma report, below 7250 in Aussie could get ugly again heading into NFP as no gamma scalping anticipated… pretty slippy down to 70…
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