AUDUSD: Aud higher on China RRR cut. RBA Stevens’ speech, tonight, RBA Minutes (Tue), CPI (Wed) by FX Charts Daily

China has surprised the market with a weekend cut to the RRR of 1% and an extra 0.5%-2.0% of RRR cuts for several qualified financial institutions. The size of the cut is much larger than economists had been expecting and will raise concerns about the growth outlook although the Aud$ likes the idea and has gapped higher at the Monday open, trading up to a high of 0.7844 in early NZ trade, a new trend high. It had traded to a high of 0.7842 (76.4% of 0.7937/0.7532) on Friday, as the shorts got squeezed, before settling back below 0.7800 at 0.7770.After digesting the implications of the Chinese action this week is going to be busy again with plenty of economic headlines due, starting with a speech from RBA Governor Stevens in NY tonight, and to be followed tomorrow by the RBA Minutes and then the CPI data (exp 0.1%qq, 1.2%yy, Core 0.4%) on Wednesday. Later in the week sees the NAB Business Conditions/Confidence and the HSBC Flash China Mfg PMI (prev 49.6).

Most analysts appear to think that this short squeeze is a temporary affair before renewed weakness sets in, which the fundamentals suggest is likely to be the case. The OIS  market is now pricing in a May 5 RBA rate cut at around 61% while Iron Ore is still very weak and finished at $49.59 p.t. with some ‘experts’ suggesting a decline to $35 pt. is on the way.

Technically the 4 hour charts now appear to be rolling over to point a little lower although the dailies are still positive, so all up we can expect some choppy trade with a mildly bullish bias, and buying dips seems to be the plan over the next session or two.

Any such dips will find buyers at Friday’s low at 0.7758 and then at the low, seen after the sharp spike higher following last week’s jobs numbers, at 0.7731.  Under here would return to 0.7700 and possibly to the 200 HMA at 0.7677 although I don’t think we are going to see that today.

On the topside above 0.7800, Friday’s high of 0.7842 will be the initial hurdle, above which would suggest a run towards 0.7884 (26 March high), 0.7904 (25 March high) and to the trend high at 0.7937.

Look for 0.7750/0.7870 to cover it today, with a mild bias to buying the dips.

Economic data highlights will include:

M: RBA Stevens Speech

T: RBA Minutes

W: Australian CPI, WBC Leading index, China Leading Index

T: NAB Business Conditions/Confidence, HSBC China Manufacturing PMI (Flash)

F:.

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