From the FXWW Chatroom: This morning, UsdJpy tried twice to take out the 100-Hour SMA at 109.23 and failed. I heard there will be some Japanese real money demand linked to last week’s Toshin. RHS fix and also a short squeeze produced a move to 109.58. Quant sellers reported close to 109.85-95 and stop buy orders thereafter 110.05. In the FXO space, there are several strikes at 109.00 expiring this week.
Euro is caught in the middle. Momentum accounts want to sell EurUsd but real money wants to buy EurJpy. Guys who play EurGbp are watching 0.9050-55. Intraday support for EurUsd at 1.1947 (mentioned earlier) – we printed 1.1946; I heard some trailing stops scattered below and bids return only near 1.1895. One newswire mentioned the weak Euro linked to EurGbp liquidation, just keep an eye on the cross at 0.9050-55, break of that could instigate selling from quant.
Early birds sold UsdCad, anticipating higher oil futures on the Saudi news. Weak stops at 1.2100 but didn’t get beyond 1.2097. Oil futures were flat and UsdCad returned to 1.21-teens.
AudNzd cross has been sliding since we took over from New York close. The cross has moved lower from 1.1069 and weakened further on back of Australia Aug NAB Business Confidence. AudUsd had been shifting lower, tripped over some weak stop sell near 0.8010 to print sub-0.80. Some said the weak Aussie is caused by USDCNH which has also been edging higher.

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