CIBC – FX Flows: FXWW

From the FXWW Chatroom: The biggest move came from UsdCad after the news article by Globe and Mail. UsdCad, which was trading at 1.3070, traded lower to 1.3022. Where next for UsdCad? We should see some buying ahead of 1.3000. No option strikes, just pure psychological level.

AudUsd marginally firmer from where North America ended, we saw one US name chewing up offers from mid-0.7680’s. Move down in UsdCad prompted AudUsd to try 0.7702 but looked like sellers were waiting.

Kiwi is offered against the Usd and Aud. Yield spreads between US and NZ continue to widen, 2-year pointing to 0.62! We suspect there has been a lot of NzdCad selling that went through. Fresh selling is now reported ahead of 0.7300.

Japanese market is shut today for Vernal Equinox Day. UsdJpy has traded in narrow range since New York closed. Bids are discussed at 106.00, not surprising because there is an option strike there maturing today for about $3.3bn. Topside resistance 106.80.

So little in Euro, traded around this option strike 1.2250 maturing today for Eur2.4bn. Big support is 1.2180, break of that will cause alarm bells.

Asians

Mexican Peso benefitted from the news too. Spot UsdMxn, hardly any interest in Asia time, dropped from 18.76 to 18.625.

Same story for UsdKrw. One thing, BoK Governor Lee Ju-yeol made it very clear that he won’t be responding mechanically to Fed Reserve rate hikes. Onshore spot UsdKrw above this 1070, 1s NDF trades 1 Krw trades -1.3 Krw.

UsdSgd is struggling to reach 1.32-handle. Some guys said there is an option barrier there but our EM trader YT disagreed. He said this is a psychological level.

HSBC – “As for 2019 and 2020 projections, there is likely to be an automatic change in the median projection since, with the departure of Janet Yellen from the Committee in February, there will be one less policymaker contributing projections. In December, the median projections for 2019 and 2020 fell exactly between the top eight and bottom eight projections of the 16 Committee members. If Yellen’s projection was in the bottom eight, and we think it was, then her departure will shift the median up to the next highest projection, even if none of the other projections change”
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