· By contrast, market pricing on EUR appears closer to a dovish extreme. Rate expectations remain close to recent lows following the perceived dovish ECB press conference last week and selling by short-term investors recently touched its most extreme level in more than a year. More recent trailing off of such selling suggests that the shift in the pattern of flow may be overstretched and presents vulnerability for a reversal. This compares to recent CAD buying by short-term investors. Particularly as EUR may benefit from the perception that US trade policy is the latest in a string of actions by the administration which may undermine confidence in the dollar as the pre-eminent global (reserve) currency, this should make it an attractive vehicle for CAD shorts.
CITI TOTW – Trade Idea: Buy EURCAD 1.5786, target 1.61, stop 1.5615: FXWW
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