Citi : Trade Ideas of the Week – FXWW Chatroom

Citi.. Short TRY vs basket of USD and EUR 
CEEMEA Strategy – Trade Ideas of the Week 
27 July 2015 
We are going short TRY versus the basket (EUR+USD) as the new Trade Idea of the week at 2.89 spot ref. We are keeping our target at 3.02 spot ref and stop loss at 2.825 spot ref. 
We believe the government’s rhetoric will remain cautiously optimistic on the path towards a coalition, but the fact of the matter is: an intensifying noise in the Syrian border is making coalition talks more difficult. The Kurdish party (HDP), now with a significant presence in the parliament, is becoming increasingly vocal about the way the AKP has recently dealt with the issue. But it is not only politics. TRY has been one of the major recipients of leveraged flows in the month of June and early July. The adverse price action continues to exert pressure on the performance of ‘carry packages’ out there. According to our internal flow monitor, real money and leveraged investors started to close many of the TRY longs established in the previous weeks. We believe this process is not over yet. 

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