Thurs 18th Sept
The E/J must get the ‘quiet achiever’ award for this week. It has continued on with the rally it started last week and, after a short dip at market open on Monday, resumed its bull run as evidentÂ on the 4hr chart below. This 2 week effort has netted 400 pips but the E/JÂ might be about toÂ run into some considerable resistance as it approaches a pivotal trading level.Â
E/J 4hr: bounced off 136 last week and has run for 400 pips:
The daily chart shows how the E/J is now butting up against a major triangle bear trend line, the psychological whole number 140 level and, just above current price, is the pivotal 61.8% fib of the major 2008-2012 bear move:Â
The weekly chart shows the significance of any potential triangle break and it would most likelyÂ confirm the ‘Bull Flag’ I have been seeing here for months:
The monthly chart shows how price has been consolidating within this triangle pattern under the 61.8% fib for a number ofÂ months now. Price rallied above this fib level in December last year but couldn’t hold those gains. Since then, the E/J has been consolidating in various triangle patterns under this key level but looks like it might be about to make another attempt on this again soon:
The 61.8% fib level of any move is a major demarcation point as it is often noted as the point of a change in trend and, thus, is worth monitoring. This fib sits near the whole number 141 level for the E/J. Any bullish continuation above this 61.8% fib would suggest a move up to the 78.6% fib near 154.
The E/J is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly charts which isÂ bullish and supports continuation.
- the E/J is currently testing majorÂ resistanceÂ offered by the bear triangle trend line and the 140 level. A break and hold above this regionÂ would suggest bullish continuation.
- the E/J is also currently just under the pivotal 61.8% fib of the 2008-2012 major bear move.Â A break and hold above this 141 levelÂ would suggest bullish continuation as well.
- traders need to monitor the triangle bear trend line, the 140 level and the 61.8% fib near 141.
- I would be looking for a daily, and even better still weekly, candle close to confirm any bullish breakout.
- Bullish continuation above the 61.8% fib would suggest a move up to the 78.6% fib near 154.