EURUSD: A choppy session for the Euro, with a similar outlook today by FX Charts

Having made a minor new high in Asia at 1.1870, the Euro opened in Europe pretty much where it closed on Friday but was unable to make any further gains and dived quickly back to 1.1800, on the back of broad based dollar strength, hitting a session low of 1.1786, before finding some stability. Since then the Euro has squeezed back towards the earlier highs, in choppy trade, and currently sits not too far below Friday’s close.Today is again pretty thin on the ground as far as data goes, with the German Wholesale Price Index being the highlight, so we can probably expect another choppy day’s trade ahead, possibly using 1.1800, again, as a pivot.

Technically, the Euro is currently sitting on the 100 HMA and below descending trend resistance, currently at around 1.1850. If we do break higher, then some trailing stops could be triggered that would take the Euro back towards the session highs at 1.1870. The 4 hour indicators still look reasonably positive, so a squeeze higher should not be ruled out and above the session high we could see the Euro carry on towards 1.1900.

There are plenty of dollar buyers into any weakness, so further progress, if seen, could prove difficult but above 1.1900, could potentially see a run towards 1.1945 (23.6% of 1.2569/1.1753) and possibly to 1.1970 (daily Tenkan) and then to 1.2000, where there is still a gap that needs to be filled from last week’s lower Monday opening price. If so, there is no change in the view that it would be a good sell opportunity.

On the downside, back below 1.1800 would suggest a run towards the session low at 1.1786 and then to last week’s 1.1753 low and to strong support at 1.1743, where the Euro was initially pegged to the dollar in January 1999. Below here looks unlikely in the short term, although eventually I suspect we are likely to head to the 2005 low at 1.1640

Look for 1.1800/75 to cover it today.

Economic data highlights will include:

German Wholesale Price Index.