EURUSD: Euro crushed. More to come…? by FX Charts

After another day of consolidation through Asia and Europe, the dollar took off as NY walked in, sending the Euro sharply lower, through various support levels and not stopping until 1.1182. The strong Durable Goods Orders (+2.8% vs +1.6% exp) helped the dollar on its way, which took little notice of the January CPI which went negative due to the collapsing energy prices (-0.1% vs -0.1% exp y/y) but the real standout figure was the real weekly wages growth, which climbed 1.2% in the month compared to 0.3% expected, to give the best single month rise since 2008. Hawkish comments from the Fed’s Bullard and Williams did the dollar no harm at all either.Today could be just as action packed, with the provisional February German CPI and the US Q4 GDP in focus, on top of a fair bit of secondary data, including the Pending Home Sales and the RM Consumer Confidence.

Technically, I don’t think that the current level is going to give way that easily as it is very important Fibo support (61.8% of 0.8225/1.6037), but if/when we do break below the session low, we would  then potentially see a run towards the trend low, seen on Jan 26 at 1.1097 . Below this there is again little to support to be seen until the Sept 2003 low at 1.0759 and while I think that  this lies ahead, I would imagine that a fair bit of work needs doing before then.

On the topside, 1.1200 is going to act as a pivot for today by the looks of it, with bounces likely to run into sellers at minor Fibo resistance levels of today’s fall, at 1.1227, 1.1258 and at 1.1300, and I would be surprised to see it above here for a while. If wrong, then further resistance would be seen within the previous 1.13/1.14 consolidation area (100/200 HMA’s at 1.1340/1.1360), above which would see the Fibo run into resistance at 1.1437 (23.6% of 1.2570/1.1097) and 1.1449, where we have a minor double top.

Trading from the short side and selling rallies seems to be the way to go again, while keeping an eye on the raft of data due later in the day.

Economic data highlights will include:

German CPI, US GDP, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, Pending Home Sales, Rts/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Personal Consumption.