EURUSD: US$ surges after Yellen/CPI. Euro opening heavy on w/e press stories re Greece

EUR/USD: 1.1007
The Euro is opening right on 1.1000 after a weekend article in the FT, quoting Greek interior minister as saying that Syriza narrowly rejected a call to stop repaying the IMF debt and to nationalize the banks. Reuters are this morning reporting that Greece’s Interior Minister says Greece will not make its June IMF repayment as it does not have the money.The Euro found some support in Europe on Friday, reaching 1.1207, after the the release of the firm German IFO business climate reading for May (108.5 vs 108.3 exp) and the German Q1 GDP, which came in as expected at  0.3%qq. It then headed back towards 1.1150 ahead of the US CPI and fell sharply when the dollar found renewed strength on the back of the Core CPI figure which rose by 0.3% mm (v exp of 0.2%), the highest gain since January 2013. The Year-on-year, Core CPI was unchanged at 1.8% (v exp of 1.7%).

Janet Yellen was also speaking and sounded quite optimistic, which did the dollar no harm at all. She indicated that while the economy is heading in the right direction there is still further progress that needs to be made before a rate hike is required.

Today should be a non-event, with Europe and the US more or less shut down for public holidays, although the negative Greek news could see some downside momentum building. Tomorrow will liven up a little with some US data, headed by the Durable Goods Orders. Midweek will be busy with a variety of secondary EU/US data, before the provisional US Q1 GDP, due on Friday. That’s aside, it looks as if it will be political soundbites, either from Central Bankers or from the conflicting bureaucratic opinions over what to do about Greece, that largely drives the direction this week.

Technically the Euro held on to 1.1000 (low 1.0001), supported by the weekly Tenkan, but there was no bounce and further downside would see it head to the daily cloud top (1.0980) and then to 1.0965 (50% of 1.0461/1.1466). Below 1.0950 would potentially see another sharp move towards 1.0.880 (61.8% of 1.0520/1.1466) and to 1.0845 (61.8% of 1.0461/1.0466) but could be a stretch too far for now.

The topside will find sellers now at 1.1040 and 1.1060, (both minor) ahead of 1.1110 (23.6% of 1.1466/1.1001) and the 100 HMA at 1.1145 but which seems unlikely to be seen again for a while.

With the momentum indicators generally pointing lower, selling rallies remains the general theme, although the weekly Tenkan and the daily cloud top will provide decent support early in the week.

Economic data highlights will include:

M:  EU Whitsun Holiday, US Memorial Day Holiday.

T: US Durable Goods Orders, Case Schiller House Price Index, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence

W: German Consumer Confidence, EU Financial Stability Review, US Services/Composite PMIs

T: Economic Sentiment Indicator, Business Climate, Consumer Confidence, US Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales

F: German Retail Sales, US Provisional GDP, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure.

The post EURUSD: US$ surges after Yellen/CPI. Euro opening heavy on w/e press stories re Greece. appeared first on FX Charts Daily.

The post EURUSD: US$ surges after Yellen/CPI. Euro opening heavy on w/e press stories re Greece. appeared first on www.forextell.com.

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